Peace in Our Time? You Never Know

I am in favor of it and I hope it happens, though I doubt it will. The 20-point peace plan proposed by the president would be a major win for Israel if—unlikely as it may be—it succeeds. Although some elements contradict my sense of what a workable peace plan requires, I believe that, with the right implementation, the overall deal could overcome my fears about the dangers of going forward. Even though there are risks that must be avoided, the fact that they can be addressed makes me think it might possibly work.

The major plus of this deal is that it solves many problems long thought unsolvable — not least the near-universal (though undeserved) condemnation of Israel’s conduct in the war with Hamas. The word ‘genocide’ has increasingly been used to describe Israel’s tactics. Despite the ignorance behind that usage, the label has badly damaged Israel’s reputation, which was quickly descending into an abyss. Many former supporters were abandoning Israel like rats leaving a sinking ship, driven by lies successfully foisted on an ill-informed media that ought to have known better.

It hardly matters that Israel’s cause and tactics are objectively just if the world refuses to recognize them. That is exactly what was happening. What this plan accomplishes — if implemented — is to restore Israel’s standing among the nations. Perhaps more importantly, it restores the likelihood of expanding the Abraham Accords. Broad Arab support for a peace deal signals acceptance of Israel’s right to exist and recognition that peace would benefit their own countries. That is unprecedented and, if it holds, has major positive implications for the future.

If you had asked me a few years ago whether major Arab states would want peace with Israel, I would have said it was impossible. Yet it has already happened with some, and the prospect of more seems real. Considering how Israel has been accused — even by non-Arab European countries — this turnaround is shocking in a most positive way.

It is equally remarkable that the plan was accepted by a prime minister many believed would accept nothing short of total victory over Hamas, his oft-stated goal. It’s true that Trump may have applied pressure, but Netanyahu would not sell out his country to a future filled with repeated October 7^th massacres if he thought that was a likely outcome. I think he believes, at some level and under the right conditions, the plan can work. Alternatively, if Hamas rejects the deal, Netanyahu can finish the job with the full blessing of his major ally, the United States.

Let’s look at the details as I understand them to see why this possibility exists. First and perhaps foremost, the deal begins with the release of all the hostages — no exceptions. That will involve a total ceasefire and the release of 250 prisoners currently held in Israeli custody, most captured after October 7^th. Hamas will be dismantled. Gaza will be demilitarized, and a transitional government will be established that will not immediately include the PA; the PA may return to a role once it demonstrates genuine reform. There will be a stabilization force under international supervision whose members will be subject to Israel’s approval. The plan has wide international support — France, Germany, Russia, Spain, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the UK among them. A poll of Israelis found strong support for the plan. This kind of agreement is unprecedented and sends a message to BDS supporters that the civilized world does not share their aims — including many Arab states.

As I indicated at the outset, there are many flies in the ointment. The biggest is the root cause: the cradle-to-grave indoctrination of virulent Jew-hatred in the Arab world, especially among Palestinians. Unless and until that changes — perhaps through major educational reform included in the peace plan — the deal won’t stand a chance. I don’t know whether that change is part of the plan, but without a determined, sustained effort to alter the anti-Jewish educational paradigm, the agreement is unlikely to succeed. For what it’s worth - my support is conditional on that change.

A poll of Israelis found that about 70% favor the plan, though only about 12% believe it has a real chance of success. That’s pretty much how I feel.

For starters, Hamas has already indicated it will not accept the deal. Frankly, I don’t see why they would. They gain nothing except exile from their people. They don’t seem to care about the hostages or about additional Palestinian casualties that would result if they reject the plan. I don’t think it’s an if — they will reject the plan. That means Israel will finish the job with the full blessing of the U.S., however many additional civilian casualties occur.

For me it’s a win/win either way. Either there will finally be a sustainable peace, backed by the Israeli people and nearly all major international players, or Hamas will be defeated at the cost of many more Palestinian deaths and widespread suffering among survivors — after which the two-state solution will likely be discarded. Personally, I am hoping for the former.

Comments to this post can be made at Emes Ve-Emunah II where it is cross-posted