It’s the Economy, Stupid!

El-Sayed declaring victory yesterday

It’s unsurprising that Democrats had a good day yesterday. There was little doubt that they would take control of the House. The Senate, on the other hand, was a surprise. The biggest surprise, however, was the magnitude of their victory.

I had hoped that Republicans would retain control for two reasons.

Republicans tend to be more pro-Israel than Democrats. And while most mainstream Democrats are not anti-Israel, the support of many of them came with strings attached.

The other reason I supported Republicans is that, for the most part, their conservative values tended to be more in line with traditional Jewish values. Democrats tend more towards moral relativism. Which means that their sense of morality is relative to the times. Behavior that is considered immoral by biblical standards is not necessarily considered immoral by today’s cultural standards.

The primary reason Democrats won so big yesterday is the same reason Republicans won so big in 2024: the economy. It was the issue then, and Trump and the Republicans were seen as the solution. Now, a mere two years later, the opposite has happened, and the party in power – the Republican party - is being blamed.

The president’s economic policies did not produce an improved economy. They did the opposite. His tariffs increased prices on many foreign-produced goods purchased by American manufacturers. Who then passed them along to the consumer. His goal of returning manufacturing to U.S. soil was the correct one. But that has not worked out well for consumers. And has yet to be achieved to any significant degree.

Still, tariffs are peanuts compared to what the war against Iran did to the economy. It drove gas prices to levels not seen in years, which increased the cost of anything that needed to be transported by trucks. Most of those vehicles use diesel fuel, which have reached unprecedented prices, creating enormous costs for the transportation industry.

Of secondary importance, but significant nonetheless, was the war itself. Most Americans have been convinced by the arguments made by Democrats that the war was unnecessary. That attacking Iran was a big mistake, causing more harm to the economy than good.

And with respect to the U.S. relationship with Israel, that too became an issue, albeit not quite to the same extent as the economy. The constant haranguing by many Democrats, including Jewish Democrats, along with their willing accomplices in the media, kept characterizing Israel’s defensive war against Hamas causing far too many innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

That view was bolstered by nightly images of the devastation caused by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. Every night, images of Gaza that looks like Dresden after the U.S. bombing were broadcast by media outlets. Which were never particularly inclined to support Israel in the first place.

They were quite happy to show Israel’s “true colors” as a military occupier executing an Apartheid regime. Caring little about Palestinians living in the West Bank. And caring little about the innocent Palestinian casualties in Gaza. They bought fully into the “blame Israel for everything” narrative promoted by Palestinian “journalists,” Hamas, and their willing collaborators at the UN.

And honestly, looking at the moonscape that much of Gaza has become as a result of Israel’s war against Hamas, it was difficult not to see Israel that way. Without the context that would explain it and make Israel’s case them - those images are devastating to Israel’s image.

These issues helped determine yesterday’s outcome. The Democratic narrative blames Netanyahu for what they perceive as immoral conduct during the war. A view bolstered by the ICJ indictment of Netanyahu as a war criminal.

But blaming him ignores the fact that there was near unanimity among Israeli leaders on both the right and left that Israel had no alternative but to declare war on the group responsible for the October 7^th massacre.

The public did not accept Israel’s explanation that it went out of its way to warn Palestinians to get out of harm’s way before attacking Hamas targets. The images of dead Palestinians, the moonscape Gaza has become, and the constant refrain from Palestinians and their sympathizers in academia and the media that Israel was committing “genocide” all contributed to that rejection.

The result was a huge decrease in American support for Israel, something the new Democratic majority in Congress is surely eager to act upon.

But it’s wrong to blame Netanyahu for the decline in American support for Israel on Netanyahu. True, his reliance on extremist right wing ultra-nationalists to retain power makes him an easy target. It is a legitimate criticism. But his conduct in the war is not…

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