Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Results and Analysis of my Poll

Israeli voter casting his ballot
The polls have closed. My poll, that is. Here is my snap analysis.

The results (which can be seen on the right margin) are as follows. Out of 207 people voting, the clear winner is Netanyahu with 58 votes (28%). And clearly nobody likes Liberman or Deri (except for one person). 

The candidate coming closest to Netanyahu is Bennett with 48 votes (23%). This is followed respectively with Lapid at 38 votes (18%); Herzog at 26 (12%); Gafni/ Litzman at 14 (6%); Yishai at 11 (5%); Gal-On at 5 (2%) , Deri at 1 (0%) and Liberman with 0 votes (0%).

My guess is that the results in Israel will look nothing like this. The results of the election  are not yet available as of this writing. But I think it is fair to say that at this point, the election is a toss-up between Netanyahu and Herzog (who no longer has Livni as his partner in a rotating power sharing agreement -  should he become the Prime Minister).

What this poll does say is that of those people who read my blog, a very small number voted. And of those who did vote, their preferences are decidedly right wing. If one combines the votes of the right wing party leaders on my ballot Likud, Jewish Home, and Yachad, you end up with 117 votes (out of 207 voters) preferring a government at least as right wing as Netanyahu. That means 56% of the people who voted want a right wing government in Israel. Even if you leave out Yachad, you still have a majority of 51%.

There are many factors that influenced this vote that may not have any bearing on how Israeli voters vote. For one thing, I asked everyone to vote - whether they are Israeli or not. It should also be noted that my blog readers are all English speakers. And it is my guess that considerations like the Israeli economy was hardly a factor for those who voted here. Most of us voted security, I think, no matter what side of the political aisle we are on.  I’m sure that for voters in Israel, the economy was a big item… and it could have easily influenced them more than security issues do.

I am happy that there were people that voted for Gafni/Litzman of UTJ (the Charedi parties).  That tells me that there are Charedim that read my blog. I think the 6%  might even under represent the actual  percentage of the Charedim that do. Some may have voted for the man rather than the party (which is what I asked for originally) nonetheless 14 votes went to the 2 Charedi candidates. It should not be that surprising either that Lapid got so many votes (38). If you like what they did up until now… and if you like his list,(a list that includes Dov Lipman and Shai Piron people that I have promoted frequently on this blog) then you voted for him.

What is somewhat surprising is the relatively low number of votes Herzog got. While getting 26 votes gave him 3rd place, knowing the liberal leanings of so many of the people that comment here frequently, I am surprised that they didn’t at least come in 2nd. Could it be that my readership is comprised more of righties than lefties? Who knows.

Anyway I just thought I would sum things up and compare it to what happens in Israel. I wonder if there will be any surprises there? Stay tuned.