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| Jordan's King Abdullah and President Trump |
As predicted by yours truly, Trump has changed some of his
positions based on what his advisers and some world leaders have been telling
him. The latest being his views on Israeli settlements. After speaking with
Jordan’s King Abdullah, he warned Israel that constructing new settlements
"may not be helpful" to Middle East peace efforts. He said that
Israel should stop the kind of settlement construction that expands the borders
of their existing ones.
This is almost verbatim what I thought he would do. He does not say that Israel should stop all settlement construction. He only suggests curbing it and not to expand the borders.
That means that if someone needs to add a bedroom to an existing house in Ma’ale
Adumim, he should be allowed to do so.
This is quite a departure from past administrations that
condemned any and all settlement construction activity referring to it as an obstacle
to peace. He did not use the word obstacle or impediment. I had always believed that this
was the fairest way to proceed in Israel. It is fair to long time residents in
cities that are just beyond the so-called ‘green line’ and it cannot be claimed
by Palestinians that Israel is in the process of a ‘land grab’ as they often say. I hope Israel takes a cue from this and follows suit.
It is interesting to note that he made these comments right after
speaking with Jordan’s Abdullah. Apparently Abdullah realizes that there is a new
sheriff in town whose advisers on Israel have views that mimic the settler
movement. He’s probably happy to have moved Trump away from those views a bit.
I don’t hear him complaining about this new policy of implied support for some
construction. At least not yet. It remains to be seen how the PA will react to
this.
While Trump has some very strong settler supporters on board
he also realizes that one cannot so drastically change foreign policy.
The same thing happened in the UN yesterday. Although
committed to improving relationships with Russia, UN Representative Nikky Haley
condemned them for their aggression in the Ukraine. The sanctions will not be removed. Shades of
the Obama administration. That was exactly their foreign policy stance with
Russia.
It is also clear that Trump will not dismantle the deal
Obama made with Iran. What is clear however is that he will be a lot tougher with
them than Obama was. Trump will probably never allow a red line to be crossed - and do
nothing. Iran’s recent attack on a Yemenite ship believing it to be an American ship… and their
recent testing of a ballistic missile has generated a warning from the Trump
administration that Iran is being put on notice. And that the US will retaliate.
That generated the typical response from Iran’s Supreme leader,
Ayatollah Khameni, which basically said the US better not mess with Iran, or
else! I don’t think the new administration is going to be rattled by a third rate
(not yet nuclear) military power’s threat in the face of America’s potential military
might. (Which Trump said is not off the table –in response to a question about
the kind of retaliation the US is thinking about.)
There is also the fact that though he has a desire to use torture
against enemy combatants to gain vital information that would help protect our
citizens here and abroad, he has nevertheless deferred to his Secretary of Defense that told
him not to do it. And he won’t.
I knew the man was not as impulsive as he seemed to be
during the campaign and during the transition period. With the exception of the temporary ban on
refugees from the 7 predominately Muslim countries known to in some way be
connected to terrorists - he is not as impulsive with respect to setting foreign
policy as he is with his daily rhetoric on Twitter. What remains then is a conservative
and tougher foreign policy stance than that of his predecessor that is being
guided by people with conservative values who have the experience to guide him
in those areas.
Unfortunately his penchant for impulsive tweets that tend to inflame passions from his
political left; some on the right; and world leaders both friendly to us and not - will likely continue. But at least his bark is a lot worse than his
bite. And I think world leaders like Australia’s Malcom Turnbull who as one of
our closest allies was nevertheless scolded by Trump yesterday - are beginning to
realize that.
(I hope this will be the last word on Trump for a while. So
that I can get back to what I intended blog to all be about. But I wouldn’t bet
the farm on it just yet.)
