Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Should We Worry about the Next Election?

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (Trib)
The answer to that question might depend on who you support. Or not. More about that later.

I have never been a real fan of Chicago Tribune columnist, John Kass. Back in 1980, Kass was the ‘replacement columnist’ for the late great Mike Royko who made a career out of bashing Mayor Richard J. Daley.  Royko was entertaining even though I often disagreed with him. (I was a fan of the former mayor.) Kass has never risen to Royko’s level of ‘entertaining sarcasm’ in my view.  I lost interest and stopped reading that column after Royko retired.

For those who are unfamiliar with Kass, like Royko, he cannot be pegged as a liberal or a conservative. Let us just say that he has expressed views that made him sound like extreme versions of either.

The one thing that is consistently unambiguous about him is his hatred for the President. He is determined to see him beat in the next election. No matter who is elected. To that end he seems like a one issue voter. He urges supporting the candidate with the best chance of beating him in 2020. Regardless of their politics.  Here are some excerpts from his latest column
Should Elizabeth Warren do the right thing and drop out of the Democratic presidential race, so Bernie Sanders can address Joe Biden’s multiple “reality issues” before taking on President Donald Trump?
Yes, immediately.
Bernie can beat Trump. Warren and other Democrats also match up well with Trump, but Sanders has the necessary authenticity. And Biden has a serious flaw…
Democratic activists worry about Biden, but the national media, which is even further to the left than are the activists, also worry. They’re trying to take Biden out with stories like the one in The New York Times the other day, depicting Biden as a confused bumbler… 
Kass believes that Biden doesn’t stand a chance  of winning. And he worries that Warren and Sanders are splitting the left wing ‘spine’ of Democratic Party voters and will therefore not get the nomination. He believes that Sanders has the better chance of winning because he has the necessary gravitas without any of the baggage Warren brings with her.

I find it curious to see how worried people are about Trump's re-election chances. The President has been in office for almost 3 years. If I understand correctly - he is the least popular President in recent history. His negatives are exploited daily in the media and by virtually everyone in the public eye, from reporters to actors to comedians to politicians - both past and present. Even people who have served in his administration have nary a good word to say about him after they leave.

Not that we need anyone to criticize him. His words and behavior speak for themselves.  I need not go into details. All one has to do is listen to him on any given day. I often cringe when I hear him comment on just about anything. The media never stops highlighting all of this. Their antipathy for the man is expressed daily in both their words and body language. You can see it in their facial expressions when they talk about him. I have never seen anything like it. 

But then again there has never been a President like Trump. After 3 years of relentless criticism one would think Trump’s days in office are numbered. Especially if you believe the polls. And yet people like Kass are so worried that he might win a second term in office, that they will support anyone that can beat him. 

How can that be based on all of these negatives about the man (and I haven’t even scratched the surface). How can that be considering the almost daily relentless pounding he gets in the media, much of it justified (though not all) even if occasionally exaggerated?

One would think Trump should be easily defeated in the biggest landslide in American electoral college history! And yet so worried is Kass that he is willing to support a socialist just to get rid of him.

I think he is right to worry. Most people don’t like Trump as a person. They might agree that his behavior is terrible. That much of his rhetoric is abominable. That he is a basically a despicable human being. They know who and what their President is. 

But they must have known that in 2016. There was no shortage of negative behavior and rhetoric coming out of Trump then too. All of it covered by the media in spades. The polls predicted a clear victory for his opponent back then. But she lost big time. Winning the popular vote only because of the large populations in the 2 coasts that are known for their liberal/left politics. But in most every other state (with the notable exception of my own very liberal Illinois) Trump won the popular vote giving him an electoral majority.

History can repeat itself. It has happened before. What about the polls indicating that he will lose? I think that might be explained by what people say in a poll versus what they do in the voting booth. How many people want to admit they are going to vote for a despicable man like Trump? Whose behavior and rhetoric are on display almost daily?

Why will they vote for this man? The answer is quite simple. It was articulated quite well by candidate Bill Clinton with a phrase that became the motto of his campaign: ‘It’s the economy, stupid!’ 

People vote their pocket book. The one thing the President has going for him - which is begrudgingly admitted to by the media and even some of his political opponents - is a thriving economy. Unemployment is down  to record levels. Even for minorities.  

One will often hear qualifications about that by his political opponents. They will say things like - if one looks at reality one will see that the economy is not really doing all that well. Especially for the middle class and the poor. Only the rich who can afford to invest in the stock market are doing well.

But that isn’t true. While the rich are indeed doing well, most of the middle class is too. Over 50% of the American people are invested in the stock market. People from all walks of life. Much of it in retirement accounts. Their portfolios have swelled under Trump. 

The one thing they are afraid of is an economy going south because of grandiose plans like universal health care by a single payer. For example the expansion of Medicare coverage  for all. Paying for that will come in thee form of a major increase in taxes. Leaving less money for everyone to spend. Other grandiose plans like free college tuition and forgiveness of student loan debt will slow down the economy as well. All of which can easily result in a major recession or worse. 

That is what voting for Bernie or Warren will get you. The other candidates are not too far behind in their own version of socialist programs. 

Voters are not stupid. America is not a socialist country. Americans will not elect a socialist like ether of those two. Nor do I really believe they will vote for Biden despite what the polls say. Kass is right about that.

Does that mean 4 more years of Trump? Maybe.  Are people right to worry? ‘Darn tootin’ they are - no matter who they support. Will maneuvers like the one Kass suggests make any difference? I doubt it. Trump’s base is more energized than ever. They are not changing their vote. And the swing voters that actually decide elections - vote their pocketbooks too. My guess is that a lot of voters that say they will not vote for Trump will go into the voting booth and actually vote for him. I think that might explain why the polls were wrong in 2016. And why they might be wrong now too.