Thursday, November 05, 2020

An Analysis of the Jewish Vote

Jewish support for Trump (Jewish News of Northern California)
Truth is I’m getting tired of talking about the election.  I wish it was over. Even if it turns out that Biden will be the winner. Which at this point that seems far more likely than Trump being the winner. 

No matter what kind of challenge the President mounts in court, in my view it will be a colossal waste of time and money. It will get him nowhere. It will just prolong the agony of waiting.  But despite the likelihood that Biden will eventually be certified as the President-elect, I am not prepared to comment on it until then.

In the meantime, there is this. One of the more interesting facets of this election is the Jewish vote and its corollary - the Orthodox Jewish vote. It is rather well known that the vast majority of secular Jews in this country (until recently about 80%) can’t stand the President or his politics. Most secular Jews hate him even more than that half of the country that is liberal. It is also a fact that the vast majority of Orthodox Jews that voted for the President (also about 80%) - in some cases even idolizing him.  Those Jews tend to be conservative. 

I have dealt with some of the reasons why 80% of Orthodox Jews feel that way. But I haven’t so much dealt with why secular Jews (and about 20% of Orthodox Jews) hate him so much. To the point of Nazifying him! The statistics are reversed. 

I think there might be a correlation between liberalism, secularism, and opposition to the President. For the most part the more secular one is the more liberal.  There is also the fact that according to a Pew Research poll taken a few short years ago the secular Jewish community is bleeding out via an intermarriage rate of over 70%. 

Putting these facts together might give some insight into the voting patterns of Orthodox and secular Jews. in the case of the latter, since Judaism in the vast majority of cases is so meaningless that they are willing to end their Jewish line by marrying out - they see little to no value in the Torah as a source of their values. And have exchanged them for the values of liberalism. 

That translates into supporting almost every liberal agenda item that congress considers legislating. As it does in rejecting almost any legislation that advances a religious agenda which they see as irrelevant or counter to the liberal democratic values they hold so dear. 

With respect to supporting Israel, that is hardly on their radar – other than to often agree with Israel’s critics. For example any legislation in Israel proposed that favors the observant community is often fought. The idea of Israel being faithful to its heritage as observant Jews is seen as anti democratic. 

Secular Jews will also reject the idea that the Jewish right to land is based on the Torah. In some cases secular Jews will see Israel as an oppressor nation occupying the land of an indigenous Palestinian people. Where they at least used to see Israel as a haven for Holocaust survivors, they now see no need for that. I have even heard a few secular Jews claiming that Israel ought not to exist at all for that reason. 

Bearing that in mind one can understand why Trump’s unparalleled support for Israel is so meaningless to them. Even counterproductive and unfair to Palestinians who they see suffering at the hand of Israel.

That kind of thinking has resulted in J-Street, an organization whose support of Israel is overshadowed by its harsh criticism.  Needless to say, there are no Orthodox Jews in their leadership. I doubt there is even one Orthodox member. In my view, there is nothing Jewish about J-Street other that its founders and leaders are Jewish by birth. 

That does not explain why 20% of Orthodox Jews – even some Charedim - do not support the President and did not vote for him. Despite all the reasons 80% do and did vote for him. They weigh his character against those reasons and feel it overwhelms by far any reason to support him. Although there are some exceptions, it is also likely that most of that 20% are politically liberal. Somehow they see liberal values as more expressive of Torah values than conservative ones. 

While that might be true about some of those values, it is difficult for me to see how the vast majority of liberal vales can be defined as Torah values. But I digress.  Point here is since only about 20% of Orthodox Jews feel that way, it highlights the fact that 80% voted for Trump and are probably politically conservative.                                                                                              

What surprised me somewhat is what Jonathan Tobin reported in JNS. Apparently according to most surveys (other than the one taken by J-Street) the support for Trump among secular Jews increased from 20% to 30%. 

What does that increase mean? Not sure. But I guess it means that there is a growing number of secular Jews that have conservative values and - despite his character - see the value of supporting a President whose policies match their values. 

Perhaps this off the cuff analysis can help explain the Jewish vote. Whether that really means anything in terms of any future election is another question. Which can probably be answered in the negative.