Sunday, November 10, 2024

Electoral Shock and Trump's Foreign Policy

I continue to marvel at the state of shock and depression by the left and Never Trumpers at Trump’s victory at the polls last Tuesday. They can’t seem to shake it off. Their level of incredulity is written all over their collective long faces. As is their level of disappointment and despair. They simply cannot believe that their message about how unqualified and evil Trump is - wasn’t accepted. Why he wasn’t  utterly rejected by the vast majority of the American electorate.  

After all. they truly believe they are the enlightened ones. Aided by media and entertainment elites they kept talking about how inclusive their candidate and their party is. How compassionate they are to all Americans  while Trump and his supporters are racists, misogynists, homophobes antisemites and anti immigrants. They believed that a racist like Trump could never gain any support from those constituencies because of his repeated negative rhetoric against them. Not to mention the fact that he incited the near overthrow of the government. And on top of all that, he’s a convicted criminal.

They painted a Trump victory as the end of democracy and believed it. Why didn't most of the electorate believe it? They were practically giddy over thir candidate who presented a far more positive picture of the future that would maintain Democracy rather than destroy it. She should have won by a landslide! Their candidate, who they believe ran a flawless campaign - made ‘mince meat’ out of Trump at their only debate. How could she lose so badly? How could their pristine values be so utterly rejected? To put it in a word, they are stumped!

 What happened?  .

Now that the shock has worn off somewhat they are trying to figure that out. 

Some pundits on the left have accused Trump’s massive win on racism. They believe that at the core this country is still racist, misogynistic, homophobic, antisemitic, and anti immigrant. That Trump succeeded in appealing to those interests. That the US has a racism problem that has yet to be properly addressed.

That is utter nonsense. America is not racist. As the two massive victories by Obama has shown. These pundits must have also forgotten that. If racism was such a factor, Trump would have won last time and be ending his second term now.

Significant numbers of those constituencies voted for Trump. Even though the majority voted for Harris, that huge numbers voted for Trump give lie to the fact that they voted for a  man they believe hates their particular demographic. They obviously do not think that. They voted for the person they thought would better their lives. And did not buy all the accusations of prejudice hurled at him. Or even if they did - didn’t care or believed it wouldn’t matter in terms of policies he would enact. 

If I were to advise the Democratic Party how to move forward, I would tell them to abandon identity politics. Because all of their supposedly natural demographic  consituencies did not vote for a candidate because they agreed with his rhetoric. They voted for someone they believed would improve their lives. We all shop for groceries the same way MAGA Republicans do. They saw 4 years of economic decline during the Biden years  And recall the 4 years of Trump (prior to Covid) as economically stable. Food prices were a lot lower Fuel costs were down. The world was at peace. And Trump was finally doing something about illegal immigrants. This is why Trump got those votes. If there would not have been a pandemic, chances are Trump would now be completing his second term.

On a completely unrelated subject, there is a lot of discussion about what Trump’s foreign policy will be. Trump’s America first policy signals a withdrawal of concern over world events. He does not believe, for example that the US ought to be responsible for the safety of Europe.  Trump believes that Europe ought to be able to protect itself. And not rely on the US to do their dirty work for them. 

Trump is not an isolationist, though. His rejection of the Iran nuclear deal and the assassination of Solomanie showed that he isn’t. But he is far less interventionist than Biden has been. Trump is opposed to the US getting involved in any foreign wars. To help assure that he will try and end the 2 conflicts now plaguing the world right now in Ukraine and Israel.  I believe he might actually succeed.

The following is entirely conjecture on my part. And could be the furthest thing from the truth, At the same time, based on the abovementioned Trumpian philosophy it makes sense that he might do something like the following.

Trump’s positive relationship with Putin will bring him to the table with Zelenskyy. He will tell Zelesnskyy that Ukraine should cede some territory to Russia in exchange for a permanent peace treaty with Russia and then guaranteed entry into NATO as a reward. The land ceded to Russia will be populated by Russian speaking Ukrainians that atcualyl favor such an arrangement. Should Zellenskyy not accept, he will lose all American aid,  lose the war, and Ukraine will become part of the Russian empire. Putin will be able to save face saying that he accomplished getting back land that should have belonged to Russia in the first place and end a war that has seen so many of his own soldiers get killed while the Russian economy lay in ruins.

Trump will give Netanayhu a green light to do whatever Israel needs to do in pursuit of destroying Hamas and Hezbollah. But he will set a time limit on that. When that time expires. He will demand a cease fire in exchange for all the hostages. If Hamas doesn’t do that, he will let Israel to keep bombing Gaza into oblivion without as much as a word about civilian casualties. Trump is not Biden. He doesn't care what the UN or any foreign leader says about it.

Hamas either lets the remaining hostages go or Gaza becomes a parking lot. The war will end but Israel will be allowed a presence in Gaza (and in Lebanon) in order to protect its people from any further attack. He will then convince Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Arab  nations to help rebuild  Gaza. and will assure Netanyahu that he will continue his previous poicy of abandoining a two state solution. Instead he will continue to pursue normalizing relations between Israel and more Arab nations. 

Meanwhile he would turn up the pressure on Iran until its people (who can’t stand their government already) finally revolt - believing at that point that they have nothing to lose anymore. It happened once in 1979. It can happen again if Iran is brought tot its knees like that. Freedom loving Iranians will overthrow their government and restore the freedom they once enjoyed before the religious fanatics that control the country now took over.

Like I said, This is all pure speculation. Which may very well be the furthest thing from ever happening But if Trump goes that way, it would end both wars one way or another. And in the process make a lot of people very happy. Especially Israel and neighboring Arab nations..