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| Gadi Eisenkot - Israel’s next prime minister? |
The primary issue animating voters is “Charedim”
and what to do about their refusal to serve in the IDF. Netanyahu is being
blamed by secular and Religious Zionist voters for protecting Charedi interests
- for delaying a vote on legislation that would require every Israeli citizen
to serve in the IDF, with few exceptions. Legislation that would include severe
sanctions for noncompliance.
Charedim, meanwhile, blame Netanyahu for failing to fulfill
his promise to pass a law that would permanently exempt them from military
service. This means that both sides will be voting for political parties
opposed to Netanyahu.
Sorry to inform those who believe things will change under
new leadership, but very little, if anything, will change. Israel’s foreign
policy will very likely continue under any new
leadership much as it has under Netanyahu. The rest of the world could not
care less about the Charedi issue. Most of the world doesn’t even have a clue
what a Charedi is.
Congressional animosity toward Israel will likely continue as before, if not get worse. All that hatred
directed at Netanyahu will have been in vain.
Those who actually do care about the Charedi issue will be
just as disappointed. Although Netanyahu’s opposition has come down forcefully
in favor of using draconian measures to force compliance with the draft, I
cannot imagine a scenario in which tens of thousands of yeshiva students fill
prisons all across Israel. That is simply not going to happen, despite
assurances from Netanyahu’s chief opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, that he will do so.
So whether Netanyahu wins or loses, nothing will change, at
least not for the better. The world will still view Israel’s legitimate
defensive war against the murderous enemies surrounding it as a form of
genocide. And there will be little change in the number of Charedi recruits in
the IDF.
The Israeli election is tomorrow. I expect voter turnout to
be huge, but the electorate will be divided. Polls indicate that Eisenkot has a
lead over Netanyahu in terms of the number of seats his party will win in the
Knesset. But that does not mean Eisenkot will be able to form a government. He
has already pledged not to include the Charedi parties. Although he has left
open the door to a possible coalition with the Arab parties.
Finding coalition partners in a Knesset that will probably
have more seats held by right-wing parties than by left-wing ones - might mean
that Netanyahu will be able to forge a right-wing government despite having
fewer seats. Netanyahu actually did that once in a previous election.
And the new coalition will surely be further to the right
than the current one. One poll I saw says that Ben-Gvir’s far right party will
actually increase the number of seats it wins in the Knesset…
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