Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Obama, Romney, and Santorum

For the first time in my memory, I am thoroughly disappointed in the entire field of candidates running for President of the United States. That includes all of the Republican candidates as well as the current President.

Rick Santorum is a nice guy, and he has picked up some momentum by winning yesterday’s two primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. As a social conservative he certainly has the support of the religious right. Although there are significant differences between Santorum’s Christianity and Orthodox Jewry (aside from the obvious religious differences) his religiously conservative values closely resemble those of Orthodox Judaism. But some of his recent statements scare me.

I was shocked to hear him say that President Kennedy’s pledge to not let his religion (Catholicism) influence his Presidential decisions - made him want to “throw up”! He sees it as abdicating the obligation to allow his religious values to inform his decisions. Something Santorum feels is wrong. I tend to agree with him.

But I think President Kennedy would have agreed with him too. Kennedy did not abdicate his moral teachings. He simply said that Catholic doctrine would not be the basis for his governance of a country that separates church from state. The idea that someone would abdicate any sense of morality learned via religious teachings is ridiculous. Unless one wants to live in a values free society one should draw upon the values they have learned - as well as the values of all citizens and find common ground. Civilization as we know it depends on a values filled country. Not a values free country.

Santorum seems to feel that the values of his own church should be the guidepost by which he will govern. That may serve Orthodox Jewry well most of the time. But in some cases it will not serve us well at all. I admire his attachment to his religion. But I fear he will be too influenced by it. Frankly, that scares me.

His foreign policy seems to be OK. He has a strong record of support for Israel. He also seems to be far more sympathetic to Israel’s existential concerns than the current administration. There is no daylight between Santorum and Israel about Iran as there is between Obama and Israel. Iran’s pledge to wipe Israel off the map combined with their not so clandestine nuclear weapons program is of equal concern for both but Santorum seems to be more aggressive about a military option.

Bottom line for Santorum is there is no way he will win the Presidency away from Obama. His appeal is too narrow.

The likely and most sensible Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, is one of the most uninspiring candidates I have ever witnessed on the campaign trail. Every time I hear him talk, I want to run the other way. Although he is probably the candidate with the most detailed plan for improving the economy, I can’t really say that I have been sold on his policies.

The same thing is true about foreign policy. He seems to say all the right things about Israel and Iran, but he says them unconvincingly, although I think he is means them. He kind of reminds me of the first President Bush. If he is elected, I don’t see him changing things that much from Obama’s polices. On the other hand he does have a much warmer attitude to the current Israeli government.

Can he win the Presidency against Obama? It depends on how the economy is doing. Right now it is improving. The Dow Jones industrial averages are returning to pre recession levels. Unemployment is down, and the overall economy seems to be on the mend. Obama gets points for that. Romney’s economic credentials will not be a rallying point for voters if the economy continues to improve. It has a long way to go. But it seems to be going in the right direction. Bad news for Romney.

Perhaps most significant thing for voters is that Romney is just plain boring. That doesn’t mean he would make a bad President. I just think that in a national contest between him and the President - Romney will lose because of his lack of any charisma to a President that has plenty of it. Elections are not always won by the man who is most competent. Not sure who that is here anyway.

Gingrich and Paul have no chance so there is no point in discussing their credentials – or lack of them.

That leaves the President. Based on his competition from the right, he’s starting to look pretty good. This is not an endorsement. But looking at the Republican field, and seeing what the President has accomplished, he may very well be re-elected. He is intelligent, polished, and has actually done some good things to help improve the economy. Not that I agree with all of them. But the proof is in the pudding – as I indicated above.

Despite all the angst by the political right over his health care revisions, I think the jury is still out on that. Republican candidates promising to repeal it - will get us back to the old health care policies. Not what any sane person would want to go back to. Medical costs have skyrocketed under those old polices. I’m not sure Obama’s new program is any better though. Like I said - the jury is still out.

On a foreign policy level the President is currently pressuring Israel to hold off on any plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and give the recently increased sanctions a chance to work. Frankly, I’m not so sure he is wrong. Attacking Iran is not a simple matter. Iran is not Iraq. It is not Syria. Iran is much stronger militarily and is perhaps the most anti Israel country in the Middle East. The last thing I would want to see is a military response by a powerful country who extols suicide missions for the sake of Islam as one of the highest virtues a Muslim can attain - a country the State Department has labeled the greatest exporter of terrorism in the world!

It may be necessary to attack them in the end. But I tend to agree that we should first exhaust all other options. What about Israel’s “window of opportunity”? Israel’s smaller military gives them less time to respond militarily than it does the US which has the most powerful military in the world by far. As Prime Minister Netanyahu constantly and correctly reminds us, Israel is a sovereign nation and has the right – and even the responsibility to do whatever it feels necessary to protect its citizens.

No nation should ever depend on another if it can do the job itself. Least of all Israel, whose memory of the Holocaust still burns freshly in its collective mind 65 years after it ended. The Republican candidates seem to agree more with Israel on this than the President does – even though the military cooperation between the two countries under Obama has reached unprecedented levels.

The President has said that he has Israel’s back; that all options are on the table including a military option; and that he does not bluff. Although there has been some skepticism about that statement by Republican pundits, I believe him. But even so - that means that Israel will have to give up its right and responsibility to defend itself and depend on a foreign nation to do it for them. As great a friend the US is t to Israel - I’m not sure it is a fair to ask that of a nation built on Holocaust survivor’s blood.

So we have this conundrum about Iran. For me it is all about saving lives. Frankly I’m not sure what the right course of action is in order to accomplish that. Which candidate has the best plan? I don’t know.

Looking at the Presidential race today, it seems to me that Barack Obama will be re-elected. Things seem to be going his way economically. And the Republicans are an uninspiring mess!

But the President has one Achilles heel. The price of gas is skyrocketing! Prices are reaching new highs every day it seems and predictions are that prices will go up as commodities speculators bid up the price of oil on the world market. That can cause the current improvement in the economy to come to a screeching halt. Prices of all goods will certainly increase as a result of increased transportation costs. And if Iran is attacked, oil prices may double. Currently the price of a gallon of gas in Chicago is about $4.30. Is there anyone who would not be severely affected by a doubling of that price to almost $9 a gallon?! If that happens Obama will lose.

Short of that - the President has made a huge mistake in not approving the transcontinental pipeline. He should also free up off shore oil drilling. Even though these measures would not immediately increase our oil supply the psychological impact of doing all that will put downward pressure on speculators. He should also sell off some of the strategic oil reserves for immediate relief. All that would no doubt reduce the price of gas at the pump. And assure his chances for re-election especilally if one looks at the sorry lot running against him. He has thus far not done any of that. As gas prices go up, his election chances go down.

Who am I endorsing? At the moment, no one!