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| Donald Trump |
Some media pundits are beginning to call Trump the ‘Teflon Candidate’.
That’s because no matter how outrageous his rhetoric is, it does not seem to
stick. At least not in any negative way. Every time he says something outrageous,
his poll numbers go up. He is currently leading all other Republican
candidates. His most recent comments were about Muslim Immigrants. He said there
should be a total and complete shutdown of entry to all Muslim immigrants.
This has been universally condemned by all other candidates,
both Democrat and Republican. Even Dick Cheney a hard-line conservative that has been criticized for his own right wing rhetoric condemned it. To
ban an entire religion entry into this country would seem to be at the very
least unconstitutional. Not to mention the fact that it would be inhumane and
unfair to the vast majority of Muslims that are not terrorists.
Now Trump is not an idiot. He is a shrewd businessman. You
don’t become a billionaire by being stupid. He must have known he was going to
get that kind of response. Just as he knew his other outrageous comments would.
And yet he made those comments anyway. And as noted, his poll numbers keep going
up. I don’t believe a poll has yet been taken after his latest comments. But it
would not surprise me if his poll numbers went up again – because of it.
The question is why? Why do comments like this which are clearly
racist (although I’m sure he would deny that) gain him increasing popularity?
The answer lies in a combination of factors.
First, he is anti establishment. It seems that anyone
running outside of the establishment these days will get support from a lot of
people unhappy with the status quo in government. There is a sort of ‘throw the
rascals out’ mentality among a great many voters. Thus an anti establishment
candidate has a lot of appeal.
They also see Trump as a man who speaks his mind – unafraid of
the political fallout. That type of candor is rare in a politician, who by
definition gives political answers to controversial questions. That’s because
they want to appeal to as wide a variety of voters as possible. So they obfuscate – leaving room for interpreting their responses
according to one’s own political perspective.
Not Trump. He has diarrhea of the brain. He does not
obfuscate. He tells you exactly what is on his mind. There is something
admirable in that even if one does not always agree with what comes out of his
mouth.
There is also a lot Islamophobia out there. Which is wrong
but understandable in light of seeing devout Muslims beheading people on camera.
And the increasing numbers of attacks against
innocent people by those devout Muslims shouting “God is Great’ in Arabic.
There is legitimate fear out there. Most people do not make distinctions
between good Muslims and bad ones. When just about about every recent attack is
carried out by a Muslim it isn’t too hard to generalize. Although it is completely the wrong and unfair way to see it this way - when someone sees a Muslim in the street these
days, what very well may come to mind is terrorism. So all of the talk about tolerance of people of all faiths from politicians is seen by many as political correctness, which in their heart of
hearts they do not buy into.
On the other hand when a ‘Trump’ comes out and plays into
those fears, they pay attention and support him. He is speaking the language of
their deepest thoughts and prejudices. Prejudices based on the legitimate fear
they have about being the next victim of an Islamic attack.
This in my view, is
why Trump is so popular. But he has no chance of ever becoming the Republican nominee
let alone President. He will never surpass the threshold of 50%. In a contest
between him and any other Republican candidate, he will lose. He may retain the
same percentage of voters he has now, but the majority of Republican voters
have yet to speak about how they feel about him if their candidate drops out. If
I am wrong and he is somehow the nominee, I will vote for the presumptive Democratic
nominee, Hillary Clinton, much as I have some serious issues with her. I’m sure
that most Republicans feel the same way. She will win in a landslide against
Trump.
The American people are not stupid. Even those that support
him now, may very well not support him in the end. Because they have to realize
that a President Donald Trump would be the biggest disaster to hit this country
in its over 200 year history. That they support
him now is a sort of protest to the establishment candidates. I think that many
of his ‘supporters’ just want to send a message. Although there may be a few
nutcases that actually would vote for him for President, I doubt their numbers
are significant.
What about all those surging poll numbers? Even if they reflect
the current reality, they do not reflect the ultimate reality. Besides, it’s way
too early for any poll numbers to have any meaning. One may recall that former
New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani was way ahead in the early polls when he ran
in 2008. He was considered a shoe in for the Republican nomination. Having come
off of a universally applauded way he handled 9/11 which occurred when he was
mayor it seemed like a no brainer to me. I supported him. But he quickly lost
those numbers and ended up dropping out of the race. So Trump’s early polling numbers
do not foretell who will be the nominee in the end.
Who will be the nominee? As I said, it’s too early to tell.
But if I had to guess, I’d say it will be Marco Rubio. Which for me is a good
thing since I support him over all the other Republicans running. Why I feel
that way is beyond the scope of this post. I will reserve that for a later time
when - if I am correct and he’s nominee - I will explain my likely endorsement
of him. In the meantime with respect to Trump… not to worry. Just enjoy the show.
