Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Implications of Michael Cohen's Guilty Plea

Michael Cohen (ABC News)
It pains me to say this but it seems that the President is more in danger of impeachment than ever before. Not now. But after the election when it seems like the House of Representatives will be taken over by liberal Democrats. If I understand the procedure, all it takes is a simple majority of the House to impeach a President. This of course does not mean removal from office. But that could be a next step.

Impeachment is rarely used since it overturns the will of the people that voted the President into office. It takes ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’. Which is kind of an amorphous description of what it takes to impeach a sitting President. 

Once the House impeaches the President, the Senate can then put him on trial. If he is found guilty of ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ by a super-majority (2/3 of the Senate)  then he is removed from office. 

It is highly unlikely that the Republican majority in the Senate will change after the next election. But even in the unlikely event that it does, it will not become a super-majority. And there will not be enough Republicans joining Democrats to form the super-majority that will remove him from office.

It’s not that I wouldn’t like to see someone else in the Oval Office. I would. The President’s behavior has been a disgrace. I say that despite my support of many of his polices. You cannot divorce the policies from the man. Just because he  is responsible for some positive things in both domestic and foreign affairs, that does not wipe away all the damage he has done to his lofty office. He has turned the Oval Office into an embarrassment. If the Presidency was a sitcom it would have been canceled a long time ago!

I am pained by the thought of an impeachment because dragging the President through the mud (of his own doing) will further damage the image of this country.  It pains me because it will divert congressional energy from legislating to the impeachment process. It pains me because removing a freely elected President from office (if it should ever come to that) would be almost like a coup d’état. That is something that happens in 3rd world dictatorships. Not in the the most powerful and free democracy in world history.

What happened to make me ruminate like this?

Former Trump lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen  pleaded guilty to 8 criminal counts and admitted making illegal campaign contributions. As I understand it, the benefit Trump received from money paid to two women in order to silence them about his alleged affair - is considered payment in kind. Which is measured against the actual amount used to  pay them off. The sum of which is well above the legal limits of what can be contributed to a candidate for federal office. According to Cohen, he did this at the instruction of then candidate Trump.

I don’t know if directing Cohen to do this rises to the level of ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’. But it is another nail in the coffin of public opinion about the character of this President. One that will surely comeback to haunt him in 2020 when he will almost certainly run for re-election. (Although based on the last election – you never know). If Trump loses that election, I fear the Left will come into power with a vengeance! Who knows how much damage they will do by undoing some of the positive things under Trump’s watch.

I have said many times that I am very pleased with those things. Among them: increasing  the nation’s prosperity; reducing unemployment, protecting religious freedom; reducing the nuclear threat from North Korea; strengthening our friendship with Israel, and bringing Iran to its knees. But the cost of all of this has been too high. And I will not support his re-election bid. He is not making America great. He is making it ugly by virtue of his character and behavior.

As noted, I don’t think Trump will be removed from office. So nothing will change. At the end of the day, at most we will get an impeachment.

If Trump is impeached, I almost wish he would go on trial and be removed from office. Difficult as that would be for the nation - the result would be replacing Trump with a man that is a true political conservative. Mike Pence will very likely continue the current President’s policies. Most of which I strongly support.

But perhaps just as importantly Pence is a man of impeccable character that would restore dignity and honor to the Oval Office. He is a man whose values reflect my own. He is a religious man; a moral man that does not take indecent liberties with women; a man that never uttered a misogynist or racist comment; a man who never secludes himself with women other than his wife; a man who supports Israel’s interests no differently than I do; a man that does not lie; does not insult people that disagree with him; does not call people derogatory names; and does not attack the media as the enemy of the people!

In short Pence seems like a man who has everything an Orthodox Jew that leans politically conservative could want in a public servant. Especially one that occupies the highest office in the land.

Unfortunately, that is an highly unlikely outcome. We are stuck with Trump.The question is, what will I do in 2020? Who will I support for President if Trump runs for re-election?

Although I cannot support Trump, I am unlikely to support a candidate from a party where some of its policies are anathema to religious Jews; a party that attracts anti Israel candidates; a party that – although nominally pro Israel -  has been less than friendly to her in recent years; a party that places the blame for all the problems in the Middle East on Israel’s settlement policy; a party that sees socialism as a virtue; a party that has turned so far to the Left it would not be recognized by one of its icons, JFK. Who by today’s standards would probably be more of a Republican than a Democrat.

I don’t know who will run against Trump in 2020. But based on the current poltical philosophy of the Democratic Party, I’m not likely to support anyone they nominate.  Which might mean that for the very first time in my life  I will not support either candidate.  The lesser of 2 evils is still evil.

That said, we have 2 years to go. So we shall see what happens.