Sunday, December 16, 2018

An Impeachable President? Not So Fast.

Michael Cohen - sentenced to 3 years in prison (ABC News)
I can see all the Trump haters salivating at the prospect that their nemesis is about to be given his due. Recent revelations by his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen make it seem almost certain that Trump violated campaign finance laws. As well as lying to congress and to the American people about contacts with Russia during the election.

Ahhhh… we got him! I can hear the is almost the universal  glee about a man that they thought would never be elected President. And then after he was began almost immediately undermining his presidency. To put it another way, the witch hunt began.

Please do not misunderstand. As most people here know, I did not vote for the President. I was shocked and dismayed when he won the Republican nomination and even more shocked that he won the election. No one was more upset than me about a man whose behavior and rhetoric during the campaign was so bad that I believed he would embarrass the highest office in the land. I think it is safe to say that he pretty much has. And continues to do so.

But at the same time the witch hunt has little if anything to do with that. Despite it being the focus of just about all the media attention. What is really about is that unlike any other time in history this was an opportunity for his political adversaries to get rid of him. They now had a man in office whose behavior was so bad that they could focus on that while their real agenda was to rid America of the man's policies. Which they hate more than the man himself! 

The liberal opposition party is so opposed to the conservative political agenda of the elected leader that they can’t stand it. Their belief in the ‘righteousness’ of their causes and by contrast Trump's ‘immoral’ polices and ‘unholy’ agenda is what this witch hunt is really about. They want his polices out more than they want him out. And Trump combined with special prosecutor Robert Mueller's efforts is making it a lot easier for them to do that. 

They are all over the media right now expressing righteous indignation about the President. The purpsoe of which is to get even their political opponents on the same page. They keep insisting that we should all be upset by what this man has done and continues doing despite our political leanings. And that his policies are almost beside the point. That kind of spin that they hope will encourage even those who like his policies to join them..

Well, I like most of his polices. And I am not about to join them in this witch hunt. Not any more than I was willing to join Republicans in their witch hunt against President Bill Clinton under somewhat similar circumstances. (At least with respect to illicit sexual encounters and lying about them under oath. Perjury is a crime too.) As much I hate the President’s personal conduct, and as a citizen am embarrassed by it, I do not appreciate political witch hunts. I do not appreciate looking for dirt on a political opponent for political purposes. Even if there is dirt there to find. Which is probably the case with a great many politicians if one tries hard enough.

When Bill Clinton was President a special prosecutor by the name of Ken Starr was chosen to investigate him. Starr eventually released a devastating report about Clinton that ended up with the House impeaching him. Although he was not removed from office, that was a low point in Clinton’s Presidency and for America in general. In reality though, that was nothing more than a witch hunt by Republicans that hated Clinton.

There is little difference between what Republicans did then and what Democrats are doing now. It was about politics then and it is about politics now. The only difference is which party is being attacked and which party is doing the attacking. The details may be different (although illicit sex was clearly part of the equation in both cases) but politics is the motivation now – just as it was then. 

There is however one big difference. The mainstream media is clearly on the side of liberal democrats. And combined with Trump’s boorish behavior, it makes him an easy target for the media to pile onto. Whereas with Clinton there was a certain degree of sympathy for him expressed by the some of mainstream media back then.  

Today, Clinton is considered an icon of virtue who has spent much of his time after leaving office on humanitarian endeavors. I’m not sure what Trump’s future will be in that regard. But it doesn’t matter. For what it’s worth I do not believe (as so many others do ) that Trump is an inherently evil man. True, he is an egomaniac. But he too may end up doing good things.

At the end of the day the question is, will Trump  be impeached and removed from office by virtue of his misdeeds, some of which may have been illegal? I doubt it., There is a good analysis of the situation in a publication called Lawfare. It lists of number of things to consider in light of Michael Cohen’s testimony. Here is one of the points they made: 
(U)nlike the admissions in Cohen’s previous guilty plea, which directly implicated the president in the campaign finance violations to which Cohen was pleading, there is no obvious criminal exposure for Trump inherent in the charges. According to the criminal information, Cohen “discussed the status and progress of the Moscow Project” with Trump “on more than … three occasions,” and he had at least one conversation with Trump about the possibility of Trump’s “traveling to Russia in connection with the Moscow Project.” While there are many reasons to be alarmed about a candidate for president of the United States, soon to be designated the presidential nominee of a major political party, contemplating a significant real estate deal in the capital of a hostile foreign power, that in and of itself does not constitute criminal behavior. 
This will not result in removing Trump from office. His crimes do not rise to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors – the constitutional standard for impeachment and removal. And some of what he is being accused of  isn’t even a crime. 

Only the Senate can remove a sitting President once impeached. The Republican controlled senate will not remove a man who is forwarding a conservative agenda. Paying off a porn star and a playboy bunny during the election in order to hide his infidelities  with them - though a violation of campaign finance laws - does not seem to be a high enough ‘crime or misdemeanor’ to get a Republican Senate on board with and remove him from office. The senate will see it as a crime worthy of that. Nor do I see the circumstances surrounding his association with Russia for business purposes to be a form of colluding with them for purposes of subverting the electoral process. Even though he tried do hide it from the public at the time and has lied about it.

Besides, removing Trump from office will not really achieve the political goals this witch hunt was intended for. Because if liberal Democrats think Trump’s policies are too Conservative, Pence would make Trump look liberal by comparison..

I think they all know this and therefore will avoid impeaching him. Putting the country through another impeachment trial will not gain them a thing.

This is the way I see things now. That Trump may not be a likable President for the majority of the country goes almost without saying. But I believe we will have to put up with him. At least until the next election. If not longer. In the meantime, I am enjoying most of his domestic and foreign policy achievements. Especially those related to the State of Israel.