The President's Foreign Policy Gambit

Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani

No. This is not an early endorsement of the President’s re-election. And it should not be taken as such by anyone – whether by his supporters or detractors. But there is something troubling about a pattern by his detractors on the Left that cannot see anything he does in a positive light.

While there is a lot to criticize Trump about (which in the past I have not been reticent to point out), not everything he does is worthy of condemnation. There is a lot to give him credit for. As I have pointed out before, if one is a political conservative, there is actually a lot to happy about. Both in his foreign and domestic policies.

Juts to name a couple of well worn examples, the relationship between Israel and the United States is unparalleled. I am not going to bother mentioning again all of the reasons why this is true. I’ve done so more times than I can count. But as sure as I am about that, the President’s detractors have a way of dismissing all of it as irrelevant, short sighted, or even detrimental. Instead of praising him - they are saying he has harmed them by reducing the chances for peace with the Palestinians. That would be funny if it weren't so pathetically stupid.  

The Left is fond of pointing out that under Trump, Israel has lost the bipartisan support it has always enjoyed in congress. I do not see it that way. The support by the Left has always been conditional. I instead see it more as one side of congress making their support of Israel conditional. If Israel did not do what the Left says was 'good for it' their support would be weakened if not disappear completely. Not so the current Republican administration. They could not be more supportive. What about the chances for peace? They are about the same as they always were. Practically nil. 

(As for domestic policies, We are in the midst of the largest economic expansion in US history. Even Democrats give him grudging credit for that. But not without saying it favors only the wealthy. as if the 60% of Americans that are invested in the stock market are all wealthy. What about the lowest unemployment rate in decades? or the fact that there are more jobs available now than there are people applying for them? The left will say that those are menial jobs that do not pay a living wage. True, not everything is all that rosy. But on balance, I am pretty happy with how the economy is going.)

This brings me to how the President's detractors (consisting mostly of political left and and the mainstream media) see his approach to allies and adversaries. Just about every time this is discussed, Left wing pundits and politicians seem to scratch their collective heads about how ‘this President’ (a term that is obviously meant in a pejorative sense) is doing the opposite of what a President should be  doing – as judged by his predecessors and what they believe is common sense.

He treats our allies like adversaries and our adversaries like allies. While that might sound counter-intuitive, I think it is actually the right strategy based on the circumstances. 

There is a saying ‘keep your friends close; and keep your enemies closer’. There can be many interpretations  to that. But in a sense that is what the President is doing. He correctly sees a history of US tolerance of our allies taking advantage of us. Trade imbalances that seemed to always favor our allies. NATO allies have been getting away without paying their fair share of its cost.Trump has deiced to stop our allies form taking advantage of us. He has gotten tough with them. 

One can quibble about the way he is doing it (such as his imposition of tariffs). But he is right to be concerned enough about it to actually do something about it other than just complaining among ourselves. Allies should understand that friends can criticize friends and still remain friends. 

Besides this is not really about friendship.  It’s about what is in the best interests for each of our countries. 

What about the ‘love affair’ with dictators like North Korea’s, Kim Jong Un. Or Saudi arabia’s MBS? The Left and the mainstream media love pointing out how ludicrous it is for the US to praise murderous dictators like them treating them better than our allies who are not anywhere near murderous dictators. But I get what the President is doing. He is establishing close personal relationships that may very well lead to progress that was heretofore unimaginable. Like eventually eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula. Something that not all that long ago was seen as farfetched if not impossible.

Not to mention the fact that many of Israel’s former Middle Eastern enemies are now singing its praises - even asserting it right to exist. That may not be all Trump’s doing. But he certainly hasn't discouraged it. Instead of distancing himself from them he is ingratiating himself to them. Thereby able to better influence them That he is so close to Israel might be one reason (if not the main reason) those countries have changed their tune somewhat. 

The one thing that bothers me the most about the critics on the Left is the criticism he is getting about breaking the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposing sanctions. They blame Iran’s recent belligerency on that. As if until now Iran was a peace loving nation that wouldn’t hurt a fly. Someone should tell that to Israelis who were shelled with hundreds of rockets from Gaza supplied by Iran.  That Iran got sanctions removed enabled their economy to recover enough to increase their export of terror. So much for that 'wonderful' nuclear deal.

Meanwhile the  Europeans decided to hold up their end of the bargain. While saying it was a matter of honoring a commitment and keeping the world safe, I am a lot more cynical about their motives. I believe it is more about salvaging their own economies with the oil they get from Iran - and the trade they do with them.

Iran is now desperate. Their economy is once again tanking. And now they have broken their end of the nuclear deal by enriching uranium to nuclear weapons level. Pundits are saying that  Iran is trying to do is get the Europeans to pressure the US to go back to the deal.

The Left is crying, ‘Oy Vey!’ Look what the President has wrought! Had he stayed in the deal none of this would be happening. Except of course the terror Iran exports. That would still be (and still is) happening.

Here is what I think should happen. Now that Iran has broken the deal, Europe should reassert their  sanctions. That will cause unprecedented hardships for the people of Iran – most of whom can’t stand the current fanatical regime that rules over them anyway, but are too afraid to do anything about. 

They are right to be afraid. Their military (the revolutionary guard) is brutal. But if there is enough pressure, there might just be a military general or two that will  themselves say they had enough. Enough to help the Iranian people overthrow their fanatical regime. It happened under the Shaw 40 years ago. It can happen again from people yearning to be free. But that is not the only possile outcome albeit the best one. It may produce a deal that is a lot better than the last one.

Is there a danger that there might be a reaction that is detrimental to us? Like an attack directly against the US?   Anything is possible. but i my view this will not happen despite threats by them to the contrary. They know such an attack will be their end. There horrific descriptions they keep throwing at us should there be a war will be all but forgotten if they attack us. They know that the US will not hesitate respond with everything we have to a direct attack.

What about Europe? Should we worry about hem severing relations with us? Not really. Cutting off all trade with us which would financially ruin them. It make the depression look like prosperity by comparison. That’s not happening either. The fact happens to be that Europe needs us a lot more than we need them. If we insist that Europe cut off trade with Iran or lose our markets, they will cut off trade with them. The Iranian market is minuscule compared to American market.

This is how I see things now. Of course the Left will scoff at this scenario as they always do. Calling it naive or even stupid. Nothing is for certain. But I am convinced that if we retain our resolve and insist that Europe re-impose sanctions on Iran now that they have breached their part of the deal, Iran will eventually be begging us for a new deal.  If they want to survive and become prosperous, they will have to come to the table and renegotiate a deal that will not only eliminate their nuclear weapons for good, they will be forced to stop exporting terror, too. They can prosper or die. That is their choice. It’s up to them.