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| The Coronavirus (CNN) |
I am not embarrassed to admit it. I am scared. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has shaken me to the core. It is increasingly on my mind. How can it not be?! That
is all anyone is talking about. The news media has increased its coverage to such an
extent, that it fills almost 100% of each broadcast. And the news is not
good. It is hard to think about anything
else right now.
This is unprecedented.
At least I my lifetime. There has never been a health scare like this
before. Where a new virus that is ten times more deadly at a one percent mortality
rate than known flu viruses are at one tenth of a percent. It is a virus that seems to be highly contagious
before any symptoms appear. With no known cure. The rapid international spread
of this illness has made it a pandemic. Which most health professionals say will
inevitably increase exponentially. Possibly in very short order.
And while the death rate is mostly among the elderly, those
with underlying health issues, or compromised immune systems - they are not the
only ones dying from the disease. At 73, I am apparently at greater risk than
most people. Although I am healthy, have
no apparent health issues, nor a compromised immune system (that I am aware of),
that doesn’t mean my age is not a factor. So, yes! I am scared. That said, I am by nature germ-phobic and wash my
hands frequently. Or use hand-sanitizer. I never touch food without doing one
of those.
I am also trying to observe social distancing. I am keeping
a distance of 3 feet away from other people. I have limited the time I spend outside of my house to minyanim, the Daf Yomi Shiur, and shopping for groceries.
I changed my initial positive response to an upcoming
wedding to - I will not attend. In short I am doing everything I can to
prevent getting the virus. But I am also aware that at best if everyone does
this - it will slow down the rate of infection, And will not stop it.
All I - or any of us can do is the best we can and hope it
doesn’t affect us or our loved ones personally. And that if it God forbid does –
that it be a mild case that will pass quickly with our health fully restored. As
has been the case for 99% of those that have had it.
That is where things seem to be standing with respect to our
health. But there is another problem with huge negative implications: the
health of the economy. Not only in this country but worldwide.
The way I see it, the world economy is collapsing unlike
anything that has happened since the Great Depression that began with a stock market crash in October of
1929. People lost their entire life savings. There
were suicides all over the place as a result of that. People lost their jobs and breadlines formed. The market and the economy seem to be
headed in the same direction. Those of us that have investments in the stock market are seeing their value plummet!
This is not
about a few fat cats losing a few million of their billions. It is about the vast
majority of investors that have much of their life savings invested - watching it evaporate before their very eyes. Daily. It is about the elderly
who are in retirement and rely on income from those investments in order to live. Many of us are in jeopardy of losing that
income. With no relief in sight.
But it isn’t only the stock market. It is the underlying
reasons the stock market is crashing. Industries that depend on travel (e.g. airlines
and tourism) or companies that rely on manufacturing in foreign counties hit hard by the virus (like China) aren’t
getting the goods they need. Nor are they getting the consumers they need to
buy them even if they are.
People are staying home and not shopping. Not even online since their
incomes situation has suffered. People are not going to work. In some cases
they are asked to work from home if possible. In other cases where that isn’t possible
- it means they are not getting paid. Some
small businesses may shut down forever. Even if they are able to get low interest
loans to stay afloat, It may not be enough. They may not be able to recover if
they are in a service industry.
To see this happening in what was – just a few short weeks
ago - one of the most stable economies in
the world … in American history is
shocking! Until this virus hit, we had a full employment economy with high
consumer confidence. People were making
more money and spending it. That kept the economy humming and stock prices
increasing.
But this virus has changed everything. We may very well be
facing a depression.
And that has me scared too.
That said, my wife has a very positive attitude about
this. She religiously and correctly follows the Gemarah’s dictum of
blessing God for the bad just as we do for the good. I am doing that too. But
it leaves me no less fearful about the possible worst case scenario in either
our physical health or our financial health.
If there is a glimmer of hope, it is that the incidence coronavirus in China has decreased. Perhaps they should be used as a model of how to fight
this disease. As I understand it - social distancing is the primary explanation
for that decrease.
I believe that most Americans are trying to do that. People arriving on from foreign countries are being tested or quarantined. Pockets
of high infections are being quarantined. Schools are closing and classes are
being conducted online.
(As I write this I just received a notice the Rabbinical Council
of Bergen County that - based on consultations with local health
officials - all Shuls will be closing their doors this Friday. Congregants are
being asked to Daven at home. On Shabbos!
Wow!)
Major events of all kinds are being canceled. Including
sporting events. The NCAA basketball championship games will not allow spectators. The NBA has suspended all of their games until further notice. People that have been exposed are self quarantining. And the US has barred all
Europeans (with the exception of the UK) from entering the country.
The government is also distributing testing 4 million
testing kits all over the country so
that those that suspect they might have it - will be able to be tested and quarantined.
Insurance companies are suspending all co-pays for this service. People that
suffer financially because of the virus will be given relief in a variety of
ways (hopefully this will be one time congress can act in unison for the benefit
of all rather than politicizing it). And government funding has been provided for
expedited research in finding a cure or a vaccine.
No one knows what the future holds. Will the virus dissipate
seasonally the way the flu virus does? That would give us time to develop a
vaccine for next year. And meanwhile the economy can begin to recover. Hopefully.
If not, then we are in for some very
hard times.
