Health and the Economy - Food for Thought

Ex-CDC Chief Tom Freiden appearing before a House committee yesterday (CNN) 

There has been a lot of debate about opening up the country again. Which I believe should not be debated at all. The debate has been framed by some as health versus the economy. That is just plain wrong. Stupid even! It is not an ‘either/or’. It is a ‘both’. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Obviously health is of paramount importance. Saving lives come first. Way ahead of money. This is why I have been scrupulously adhering to social distancing, and wearing a mask and gloves when I go out. 

I try as much as possible to stay away from people. But I still need to buy food. Get some fresh air and exercise while I’m at it. Other than that, I stay home. I am one of the more fortunate people in the sense that I am retired and living on social security and life savings. I do not need to work. All of my bills get paid. 

But a lot of people are not that lucky. They need income to put food on their table and pay their bills. For them, working is a necessity. Most people do not have enough savings to live on for months at a time. Not working creates an unbearable reality for them. With anxiety levels going through the roof! Mortgages don’t get paid. And fear of losing one’s home with no where to go becomes a real possibility. 

Being together in the same space with a spouse and children 24/7 can cause a lot of stress, too. And then there is monotony and boredom to the point of distraction - replacing a productive work schedule outside the home. Watching the daily media reports all of which seem so pessimistic does not help matters. Under such conditions, every day can become increasingly unbearable. Especially if there is no end in sight. It’s is easy to see how anyone can become depressed. And in some cases even suicidal. I believe that suicides have gone up dramatically since COVID -19 hit us.

How many lives will be lost by keeping the economy closed indefinitely, people staying home, not working, and unable to pay their bills, with no end in sight? 

This is why I get upset when I hear people making health versus the economy comparisons. People will die either way. It is unclear, however, which is worse. What will the numbers be? Will more people die because we open the country back up? Or will more people die because we don’t? I don’t think we really know.

A way must be found where we can at  least more or less even up the odds. The country needs to open back up. But with clear and enforceable safety precautions in place to minimize the spread of the disease. 

The actual steps that need to be taken are beyond my pay-grade. Former CDC Chief Tom Freiden whose predictions have been dire offered his own plan on how to proceed opening up the economy. 

Whatever we end up doing, I assume that it will continue to involve wearing masks in public and practicing social distancing.  It will also require a lot more testing and contact tracing so that those that have inadvertently come into contact with an infected but asymptomatic carrier can self quarantine – with substantial penalties of they don’t. And it will require a maximum effort to find a vaccine so that we can eventually return to normal.

Meanwhile, I have been listening to briefings by Illinois Governor Pritzker and his health advisors where every day  new infection and death number are reported. That so many new deaths are reported every day because of COVID-19 is about as scary as it gets for me. 

However, one thing that has been missing from these reports is the condition of those that have died. During yesterday’s briefing, those deaths were put something like this: 136 people died where COVID-19 was a factor.

A factor?! That made me wonder how many of those deaths were by people with underlying health issues? My guess is that the vast majority of deaths reported are not purely from COVID-19. Which might very well mean that that those that died from COVID-19 alone is very small. I say ‘might’ - because  I don’t really know. 

It would, however, be helpful to know that if we are ever able to return to anything remotely resembling a full employment economy. Because then the prudent thing to do would be to require only those with underlying health conditions to stay home. While the rest of us are allowed to go back to work albeit with the above-mentioned testing and safety precautions.

I also wonder how the COVID-19 numbers compare to the common flu? Is the death rate similar? Are underlying health issues the same kind of factor there as they are with COVID-19?

And what about the age factor? We know that the elderly are more vulnerable. The older, the more vulnerable. But age also brings on underlying health conditions. It is true that a lot more elderly people died – especially in nursing homes. But it’s also very possible that it was not age itself - but underlying health of those elderly that was a major factor in their death. 

These are important questions that I have not heard addressed. But I believe they are of paramount importance.

This does not mean we can just treat this pandemic like the flu. For which there is a vaccine. But it will tells us about the relative danger to healthy people that catch it. 

We already know that there are a lot of people that are contagious and never have any symptoms. We already know that the vast majority of people  have symptoms recover. And we know that the majority of people that die have underlying health conditions.  On the other hand, we also know that there have been a lot of otherwise very healthy young people – with no underlying health conditions that have gotten very sick and in some cases have died!

I want to be clear. I am not God forbid trying to open up the country without taking the necessary precautions I mentioned above. – and whatever else our health officials recommend. All of which should be enforceable. I am only asking questions that at least for me, have not been answered. And which I think are important for all of us to know before we go forward.