Will a Second Wave Happen?

Mazor Chairman Rabbi Shimon Ragov (Ynet)

Things seem to be falling apart pretty rapidly. About half the states in the country have seen increases in the rate of illness and death from COVID. Some of them in record numbers akin to what The state of New York was seeing at their peak. Meanwhile New York is now seeing the lowest numbers since the beginning of the outbreak. That’s is very likely due to the precautions implemented by Governor Cuomo at the behest of the state’s public health officials.

Most people  followed those guidelines. And after a lot of serious illness and death, things have turned around. (The same situation is pretty much true in Illinois.)

But it appears that in the states where disease and death are spiking, a lot of people are ignoring precautions and acting as though the disease doesn’t exist.

By now most people know that COVID-19 is spread mostly by people that are asymptomatic - either never getting them at all, or as in most cases not getting symptoms at first and yet still being contagious a few days before they become symptomatic.

The problem with that is that as summer gets underway people are getting out more. Even the most diligent among us – including yours truly - tend to forget that we are in the middle of a pandemic. When the weather is nice and all you notice are blue skies and fresh air, it isn’t easy to remember that. A lot of people aren’t wearing those uncomfortable masks anymore. When seeing a friend in the street not having seen them face to face in months, the natural inclination is to go over and socialize for a moment before remembering to socially distance. So with all the best intentions in the world, the danger of a spike or a second wave is real.

And yet all the states are beginning to return to a semblance of normalcy by opening up non essential businesses, restaurants, recreational facililites, and places of worship. But only with the restrictions recommended by health officials. Such as wearing masks and limiting the number of people so that social distancing can be adhered to.

But as I indicated. A lot of people are ignoring these restrictions. Some unintentionally and some intentionally. The combination of the ‘quarantine’ over the last few months and the invisibility of the disease makes forgetting about it all too easy.

Because of this and the all of the recent ‘Black Lives Matter’ protests where these restriction were also ignored, health officials have expressed the fear of a possible second wave. If one looks at the 23 states where the number of COVID related illness and deaths are peaking, I think their fears are very legitimate.

One of the places where exposure to COVID is greatest is in indoor situations. One is far more likely to get this contagious disease by socializing with asymptomatic carriers  indoors than they would by doing it outdoors.

At least in Israel, there are responsible Charedim that are actually sensitive to this. Instead of rushing to open up more Shuls and complaining about some of the other restrictions still in place - they are suggesting we close down the Shuls already open. From Ynet: 

Rabbis and other prominent figures in the ultra-Orthodox community on Monday called on the government to shutter synagogues once more to prevent a second wave of coronavirus from spreading within the community.

In an interview with the Ynet studio, Rabbi Shimon Ragovi, chairman of the Mazor organization - which offers medical counseling, guidance, and information – voiced a plea to close down houses of prayer to minimize virus fatalities.

"It's uncomfortable and unpleasant to pray outside in the summer, but it's more pleasant than going to a funeral,” Ragovi said. "Saving lives is more important than praying in a synagogue."

Most infections occur in closed spaces with masses of people together for a long time - this is precisely what happens in synagogues. When you go to a synagogue, you see that a large percentage of people there do not wear a mask properly, and it is also extremely hard to keep a distance of two meters. 

For about a week now, with the OK from my doctor- I have been Davening in Shuls that are meticulous about hand sanitizing, wearing masks, and socials distancing (including limiting the numbers that may attend). It has been a strange experience because of all those things. And while I appreciate the ability to finally be able to Daven Tefila B’Tzibur, I worry if I haven’t exposed myself to a risk I shouldn’t have. I just hope that I don’t pay a price – especially the ultimate price.

That said, as long I have already started, Illinois state health officials and the entirety of the Chicago Orthodox rabbinate deem it OK as long as the precautions are strictly observed, I will continue to do it. Albeit with a bit of trepidation each time.

Am I doing the right thing? Am I being Mekil on Sakanos Nefashos? Am I risking my life unnecessarily by going to Shul?

In some ways, I almost wish I could pass the responsibility off to the Chicago rabbinate where they would close down the Shuls again. That would make things a lot easier for me.  But I don’t think that will happen. It is one thing to go into ‘quarantine’ the first time. 

It isn’t easy.  But you do what you have to do in order to stay safe. But once you’re out and have experienced the relief from isolation, going back to it is much harder. I can see a groundswell type of revolt by some Orthodox Jews who will defy those closures and Daven in those Shuls anyway.

So, I guess things are going to stay pretty much the way they are. I just hope we can get away with it unscathed.