Wednesday, November 04, 2020

It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

Too close to call - Electoral map as of  approximately 9:00 am today
If Biden wins the Presidency, there is somewhat of a silver lining in the very dark cloud of a liberal/left Presidency. It is the fact that the senate will remain conservative. It appears that Republicans have retained control. 

Biden needs senate approval for a variety of issues that he supports. Which a conservative senate will not grant him.  That means that the left turn taken by a Biden Presidency will not be as drastic as it could otherwise be if his party controlled both houses of congress. That would be a pathway towards approval every liberal piece of legislation that they desire and passes his way. 

That doesn’t mean he won’t achieve anything. The Executive branch of the government has a lot of things it can do without congressional approval. Like foreign policy initiatives. But it will not be total. That is a good thing. Add to that the conservative make up of the Supreme Court… and I believe that we are somewhat spared from an onslaught of liberal/left progressive legislation. 

As of this writing, the outcome of yesterday’s Presidential election is still uncertain. Despite the President’s claim to the contrary, it could go either way. Even if a winner is declared in the next few days, a variety of things can happen that will still leave the outcome uncertain. In a close election, recounts are often requested by the losing side. Or there could be court challenges that will work their way from state courts to the Supreme court. Who knows who will win or when? 

Regardless of the outcome, one thing remains abundantly clear. The polls were wrong again. They predicted an almost certain win for Biden in all competitive states. Although the polls narrowed somewhat recently and were within the margin of error - the feeling was that most if not all of those battleground states would turn blue this time. 

That has not happened. Florida and Ohio, two of the states thought to be swinging Biden’s way, swung Trump’s way. 

But even if Biden wins, the country is just as divided as ever. The idea that voters were just plain sick and tired of this President and were going to vote him out of office in some sort of landslide (or close to it) did not happen. The antipathy to the President was (and still is) fueled daily by an unrelenting media attack that never misses an opportunity to point out the President’s flaws without ever saying anything positive. Now it’s true that the President has given them a lot to work with. But to never give him credit for anything makes their bias obvious. 

This is where the media went wrong. By being so obviously anti Trump, I believe voters stopped paying attention to them. It is also true that because of the negative spin the President got (much of it deserved) a lot of voters actually hid who they were going to vote for. 

Why was there so much support for him? I believe they actually did see some of the policies he had as beneficial to their wallets and their ideals, despite his apparent personal lack ethics and morality. 

What about that lack? Why didn’t they vote based on that? Because they believe his policies are good for the country even as they reject his character. Even as the media casts his polices in the most negative way they possibly can. 

Just to take one example – which has pretty much been ignored by the media lately – the President’s approach to law and order. The media painted that in racist terms - as sort of excusing police brutality against black people.   

But the electorate is not blind. They saw rioting, looting, and destruction during the Black Lives Matter protests – all while the electronic media was downplaying those very images! While it’s true that many of the protests were peaceful and justified, far too may were not. To blame it all on outside agitators was too much of a stretch. 

Apparently a lot voters saw right through that. A lot of looting was actually done by some of the protesters themselves. Feeling justified because of all the decades of pain they have suffered at the hands of white society. I recall one young protest leader saying that she didn’t consider it looting. She considered it a form of reparations for the slavery of her ancestors and a long history of racism in America! 

Biden hardly ever mentioned the words law and order. He kept focusing on what the media keeps calling institutional racism in law enforcement. Which he said needs to be corrected through police reform. Saying that he was opposed to defunding police department was almost an after thought. 

The average middle class voter does not want to see more of the same – even as they might agree that racism exists in law enforcement. So voters who support Trump because of a law and order agenda might be reticent to say that for fear of being considered racist. Which is how the media paints it. So they hid who they voted for. 

I think this helps somewhat explain what happened this time around. 

As I  indicated. It ain’t over till it’s over! It is true that Trump lost some of his 2016 support. How could he not considering the unrelenting (and in some cases deserved) attack by the media against him. But support for the Presiient has not gone away and the country is still as divided as ever. 

That being said, Biden will surely win the popular vote. California and New York -  the 2 most populous states -are about as blue as they can get. So it is no surprise that the majority of people in this country are liberal. But the majority of the other 48 states seem to be red. That’s what they were in 2016. And that’s where they might still be. 

Which is why there is an electoral college. It would be a horrible state of affairs to let the tyranny of the majority prevail because of two states.