Wednesday, December 23, 2020

As Another Election Looms, Will Netanyahu Do it Again?

Netanyahu and Biden (Times of Israel)
I have said this before. But I think Israel’s parliamentary system of government is one of the most inefficient types of governments in the free world.  Which is why there have been so many elections there in such a short period of time. And Israel is not the only western style Democracy that works that way... all of them just about as inefficient. 

The way it works is that if a political party wins a majority of the seats in the Keneset, the leader of the party becomes prime minister. If not, then the party with the biggest plurality of seats is asked to put together a governing coalition which must at a minimum consist of a majority of Keneset seats (61). If successful the party leader becomes prime minster. Party leaders are chosen by party members long before the election. 

What ends up happening is that voters will often vote for a party because of who they want to see leading their country. That means that the party that most closely reflects their ideology may not get their vote - since it isn’t big enough to win the most seats in the Keneset or put together a governing coalition. In my view the solution to this problem would be to have direct elections for Prime Minister. Then they could vote separately for the party that best represents their political ideology. The direct election of the President is how the American democracy works. In my view, the US is by far the best kind of democracy. It is both efficient and free.  

Israel tried that for one election. It was quickly abandoned after that. I’m not sure exactly why but I think it had to do with party influence being watered down by splitting the up vote too many ways among too many parties. In any case, it is what it is. 

Which brings me to the latest development. Israel is about to have its 4th election in two years. And it appears that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue in that role. 

Netanyahu may actually the smartest politician of all time. A political genius. Like him or hate him (as does the left) I don’t think too many people would argue with that. He is Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister in their 73 year history and seems to on track for keeping his job. Despite being under indictment for corruption. 

According to the Jewish Press, if the election were held today his political party, Likud, would have 30 seats. The great ‘Blue and White’ hope’, Benny Gantz, will be all but gone in the coming election -  currently projected to have less than 10 seats. Challengers have risen to contest him in every election only to disappear soon after. The center-left parties are as divided as ever. So too are the center-right parties. 

I realize the left (both here and in Israel) hates him almost as much as they hate Trump. But the left is not in charge of who governs. The electorate in Israel is. If past is prologue and Netanyahu manages to win a plurality of those votes he will again be asked to form the next coalition government.   

Will this time be any different? I hope so. But I doubt it. Even though there is no way of knowing until after the election the country is as divided as ever. There is no reason to think things will be any different now that they were the last 3 times. 

It might seem ironic that Netanyahu is so popular considering his corruption charges. But that can be easily explained by what he has been indicted for, which is basically accepting some expensive gifts while in office which is against the law.  

Most Israelis don’t really care about that so much. His supporters see the corruption charges as political. They look at what Netanyahu has done for the country. His opponents on the left might argue that he has done more harm than good.  They have tried to make that case. To cite one example that is a favorite of theirs, it is Netanyahu’s apparent abandonment of seeking bi-partisan support in congress. Instead abandoning Democrats and betting Israel’s future on Republicans. 

I don’t think that’s true – despite the fact that his political views are much more aligned with Republicans than they are with Democrats. Netanyahu has worked with Presidents of both parties. Speaking his mind to power is one of his trademark approaches to governing. The left sees it as Chutzpah. The right sees it as standing up for principle. Either way, bi-partisan support is still there. That’s because Israel is a valuable ally to the US. Which is one reason that - despite his antipathy towards its prime minister, the previous President had closer relations with Israel than any of his predecessors. Even if you include his allowing the UN to sanction her near the end of his term. 

It is true that Netanyahu has some character issues. He has for example said some pretty controversial things during elections that made him appear racist (against Arabs) in order to appeal to extremist right wing voters.  But that is apparently not enough to be rejected by the Israeli electorate. 

There is a reason he keeps getting re-elected. And it isn’t only because of his substantial political acumen. He has done a lot for his country.  Not the least of which are the measures he has taken to protect his people from suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks.  Like building a wall between the West Bank and Israel proper. Even though the wall has been strongly criticized as racist -  it has all but ended suicide bombings from West Bank Palestinians that had easy access. until the wall was built. 

He has also gotten Israeli captives released from Gaza as well as getting the bodies of soldiers felled in battle returned. Under his watch the Israeli army has successfully protected its citizens during several wars in Gaza. He successfully targeted threats from in Syria. His bold and successful infiltration into Iran’s nuclear program has revealed their secret nuclear plans. He has also turned the country away from the socialism its founders had envisioned toward a more capitalistic free market economy. Which was thriving until the pandemic. And finally there is his latest (and ongoing) achievement - making peace with several Arab countries.  

I’m sure I missed a few things. But I think these are enough to explain in part - why he keeps getting re-elected.. 

That said, I know that a lot of Israeli voters can’t stand him. The left hates him for obvious reasons. Some voters hate his arrogant ‘know it all’ personality. They are sick of him and have had enough. They want to see change. That’s true even among some that voted for him in the past. 

And yet Netanyahu has weathered the storm. He is still in control and is poised to maintain control after the next election, despite the best efforts of his political enemies to get rid of him. Of which there are more than a few.  As things stand now with ‘blue and white’ being decimated, I see no other challengers waiting in the wings. But I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. 

If as I suspect Netanyahu retains power, I hope that President-elect Biden will work with him and continue to make peace between Israel and her neighbors. And that he abandons the failed policies of the past. The more he does that, the more Palestinians might just see the wisdom of abandoning their unrealistic demands and opt for the promise of a much better life for their people by making a peace deal with Israel they can both live with.  

President- elect Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu have known each other a long time. Despite their differences they have always had friendly relations. If that is still the case, there is a chance that something good could happen. You never know.