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| Charedim fully integrated into the workplace (TOI) |
But their lifestyles will not be significantly different from that of Centrists like myself. Which is why Centrists will blend in easily with the greater Charedi world. Even though our Hashkafos (and perhaps some of our customs) will differ from each other. From Haaretz:
One out of every seven Jews in the world today is ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, according to a first-of-its kind study published Tuesday by the London-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research.
If current trends continue, the study predicted that nearly one out of every four Jews in the world will be Haredi by 2040.
One in four. Wow! 2040 is just 18 years away. That is an astonishing growth rate. Which doesn’t say much about the current 90% of American Jews that are secular. Their exit from Judaism seems to be more accelerated than I had originally thought. Although I shouldn’t be surprised at that, I suppose.
What makes these statistics even more interesting is that the growth rate cannot alone be attributed to their high birth rate. Nor is attrition out of the Charedi world much of a factor:
High fertility rates among the ultra-Orthodox population is one of the reasons the Haredi population is expected to double over the next 20 years, but it’s not the only one.
The study revealed that Haredi Jews also enjoy considerable longevity. In fact, it found that ultra-Orthodox Jews tend to have a higher-than-average life expectancy, despite the relatively high rates of poverty within the community.
Another factor contributing to the population boom is the high level of “lifestyle retention” in the community: most Jews who are born into the Haredi world stay in the Haredi world. Indeed, according to the survey, the percentage of ultra-Orthodox Jews who leave the fold is so marginal as to have little impact on the overall demographic outlook for the community.
It is also interesting to note that 90% of the Charedi world lives either in Israel or the US. This does not bode well for heterodoxy at all, Despite all their efforts in trying to stop the hemorrhaging of secular Jews out of Judaism in the US. They are spitting in the wind.
(Which kind if begs the question, what is the point of Israel granting them some sort of legitimacy? Clearly the ‘Kiruv’ methods of the Conservative movement have failed on a colossal scale since the over century of their founding. What will the typical secular Israeli gain by a heterodoxy that will sanction their non observance? And fight for their rights to be non observant? But I digress.)
This is not an ‘I told you so’. First of all it’s only a projection based on a study. Things can change. Linear projections are often wrong since they don’t account for external factors not evident at the time of the study.
But still, it just seems like the evidence for this population shift seems to get stronger with every survey
I wish it were my Hashkafos that were dominant in the world of Orthdoxy. I strongly believe in them. But they are not. Not because Charedi Hashkafos are more correct. But because of the nature of their growth and their success in permanently instilling their values generationally via parent and school.
Predictions of their demise because of their insular tendencies and devaluing Limudei Chol (secular studies) is premature. It hasn’t happened yet. And seems to be going in the other direction.
I think that’s because of the strong moderate component among them that actually does value Limudei Chol – as least as far as Parnassa (making a living) is concerned. Which also integrates them more into the general culture – allowing them to see the real world rather than the one painted for them by some of their educators. I believe that the majority of Charedim fall into this category. Although there is obviously a sizable minority that prefers to remain isolated (mostly among the more extreme Chasidic sects) I believe that most Yeshiva type Charedim and more than a few Chasidim have chosen the more moderate track.
Admittedly this is all speculation. But it does help to explain why Charedim continue to flourish.
Where does that leave the left wing of Orthodoxy? Hard to know. There are some very idealistic people that strongly believe in the Hashkafa of the extreme left (formerly known as Open Orthodox). But I don’t see the numbners there. That said, they might grow, but at a much slower pace. On the other hand they may not grow at all. At least in terms of Orthodoxy. If they go too far to the left, they may actually fall off the cliff. The same cliff (albeit on the right side of it) that extremists on the right will eventually fall off of.
