Sunday, January 28, 2024

On Second Thought, Biden Will Win the Election.

E. Jean Carroll on Friday after being awarded an $83 million payout from Trump
$83 million. That might just be the value of the increased support the former president is getting by the verdict to pay that amount to a woman he defamed. In one of his many trials, Trump was convicted of defaming E. Jean Carroll. a women he was earlier convicted of sexually assaulting back in the 90s. Instead of burying him, his MAGA support has been strengthened immensely by that verdict.

How is that even remotely possible? Well, it’s because they see all of his legal troubles being either fake or overblown – generated by his political opponents.

Personally, I think there is some truth to that. Even if those indictments  are totally evidence based and legitimate, the prosecutors who indicted Trump are not MAGA Republicans. They are probably Democrats or Never Trumper Republicans who can’t stand him. 

MAGA Republicans therefore see every single one of those indictments as a political attack against a man they see as their savior. A man they will support because he will restore the policies he began in his first term.

To the extent that those indictments have any merit doesn’t matter. Even if he is convicted in all of them it won't matter. In their eyes it's all political. The more they throw at him the more MAGA Republicans are determined to stand behind him. 

That kind of loyalty and determination will clearly get  him the Republican nomination. The Republican party has largely become the MAGA party. Republicans running for re-election have no choice but to kiss his ring if he they want to get re-elected.  And they certainly do not want to get on Trump's bad side if he re-assumes the Oval Office. While this may not speak well of their ethics it is nevertheless a reality.

None of this is new. I have discussed it all before. Many times. But I have changed my mind about what I think the outcome of the election will be. Here’s why.

The one thing MAGA voters do not realize is that all of Trump’s legal troubles are not going unnoticed by the rest of the American electorate. Needless to say the majority of Democrats are not going to vote for him.  But I do not see Independents voting for him either. And certainly not the increasing numbers of Never Trumpers. The more times he will be found guilty of the crimes he has been indicted for the more likely he will be rejected by Independents.

So even though MAGA support gets stronger every time Trump is attacked, they are not the majority. I have now come to the conclusion that in a general election we are going to have a re-run of the last election with the same results. Which means that the inevitability of Trump being the Republican nominee will result in the opposite of what MAGA supporters want. 

The sad thing is that since  President  Biden is so unpopular - just about any other Republican running against him would probably win. With Nikky Haley topping that list. 

If not for Trump and his MAGA supporters, Haley would very likely be the Republican nominee and win in November. That MAGA voters don’t see that is a function of their blind support that sees all of Trump’s legal problems as ‘fake news’. 

It’s true that  recent pols have shown that Trump will win anyway. I recently predicted that based on those polls. I no longer feel that this is the case. Polls can change and are not always an accurate predicter of election results. The more Trump is found guilty of those crimes the less likely he will get votes outside of his MAGA loyalists. 

Other than his loyalists - who in their right mind would support a convicted felon many times over to be their leader? Who in their right mind would want a convicted felon to represent our country to the world? Who in their right mind wants a leader where revenge against political enemies or even former allies that have become disloyal  to him personally- to be his number one priority? Support Trump might have had from non MAGA voters will surely dry up.  So while MAGA Republicans (which I now believe is the vast majority of Republican party) are in control of who they will nominate  they are not the majority of the electorate who will not be voting for him. Leaving Biden to win a second term.

The irony is that MAGA Republicans could have had a conservative like Haley occupy the Oval Office. Her conservative credentials are real. Her polices will be as conservative as Trump’s. The difference being that she actually is a conservative while Trump only plays one on TV. Why not Haley then?

MAGA Republicans are not evil. They just love the conservative policies he Trump implemented. Like putting 3 conservative justices into the Supreme Court - changing it from a left leaning majority to a right leaning majority.  That Haley would do pretty much the same thing doesn't matter. Trump has proven himself by way of his first term. A proven commodity who has mesmerized his base. And they love his anti establishment approach to government 

To say that I am disappointed is an understatement.  I do not want to see ether Biden ot Trump in the Oval office for another 4 years, But one way or another that is what we are going to get. And if I’m right, we will continue to see a once centrist Democrat that - except for  his robust and unwavering support of Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas - is increasingly being influenced by the progressive left. A left whose values are far from my own.