A Brand New Ballgame

Will Harris face Trump in November? (NBC)

Even though it was almost a forgone conclusion, I was still somewhat shocked by what happened yesterday. By now the entire world knows that President Joe Biden has decided to no longer pursue a 2^nd  term as President of the United States.

I was never a fan of Biden even though he was a centrist Democrat for most of his long political career. I just didn’t trust him. I saw him as an ambitious politician that would change his position on a dime if it suited his political ambitions. 

His presidency proved to be more of the same. He has long ago abandoned his centrist position sensing that his party has moved to the left. That being said, his support for Israel has remained strong. As an Orthodox Jew, an American patriot, and a strong supporter of Israel, I thank him for his unwavering support in the aftermath of the October 7^th massacre - when Israel needed him the most. I share the sentiments of Israeli President Isaac Herzog who thanked him for the “friendship and steadfast support” for Israel throughout his long political career. Herzog also said the following:

 “As the first US President to visit Israel in wartime, as a recipient of the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honor, and as a true ally of the Jewish people, he is a symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples,”  

Although recently Biden has been critical of Israel’s conduct in the war and expressed frustration with Israel’s right wing government, he never wavered in his commitment to Israel’s right to exist and to defend itself against Hamas.

I actually feel sorry for the way Biden was treated by his colleagues. It was a virtual mutiny with many prominent Democrats jumping ship. They saw an old man in physical and mental decline during a debate with Trump and wanted him out. Biden fought valiantly to retain the nomination. But the overwhelming opposition of colleagues, supporters, and friends made him realize there was no way he could win without their support. 

Biden did not deserve to be thrown under the bus like that. At the end of the day, he is a decent man who deserved to be treated with a lot more dignity than he got. Now that he has abandoned his quest for a 2^nd term they are treating him like Gandhi.

That leaves a void in the party that has yet to be filled. Who is going to be the standard bearer? That void seems to have been quickly filled by his Vice President, Kamela Harris. As would be expected Biden quickly endorsed her. That was followed by a virtual sea of support by fellow members of the Democratic party. Including many popular political figures that might have otherwise been her rivals for the nomination.

It seems, therefore, that she is a shoe-in. No one wants to go up against a candidate with the kind of massive support she is getting on day one. Especially if that candidate is a  black-Asian woman. That would be about as politically incorrect as any Democrat could possibly be. Her support seems to be increasing very rapidly. It is almost as if they are choosing her for purposes of unity and racial/ethnic equity without caring much about her personal political views

Which begs the question, is she really the best candidate to win the election in November? Or is she the most expedient candidate for purposes of uniting the party as quickly as possible? I think it’s the latter. A poll taken after the Trump assassination attempt (before Biden bowed out) shows Harris trailing Trump by 3 percentage points in a head to head contest. Her colleagues seem to be ignoring that and claim that the issues are on her side. And she will therefore easily win. Besides, polls have been wrong before. Many times. 

But I would not dismiss them so quickly. When a party changes the candidate for president in the middle of an election campaign. it leaves an impression of chaos and disunity. That will not quickly go away despite their best efforts to show the near universal support Harris is getting. But even if they succeed in unifying the party, they have to consider who they are unifying with.

Rightly or wrongly Harris is perceived as a far left candidate. She has been endorsed by the far left of her party, including Bernie Sanders and AOC. She may have at one time been a centrist Democrat. But she has turned leftward - right along with the rest of her party.

The majority of American electorate is centrist, It doesn’t matter if they have a D or R in front of their name. They want someone that will rule from the center. Not the extreme right or the extreme left. Harris may try and portray herself that way. But her reputation precedes her. She will not sway the moderate middle to vote for her any more than Trump will sway them to vote for him. Their vote will very likely be split.

It might help if she picks a centrist Democrat from the rust belt to be her running mate. Like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. But I’m not sure that will be enough.  

The question which concerns me is what her policy on Israel will be. How supportive will she be if, for example, she doesn’t like who the Israeli electorate chooses to lead them?

That being said, those who say she is anti Israel are dead wrong. She is no more anti Israel than Biden or Obama. But she has expressed a lot more sympathy for Palestinian protesters than has Biden.

So like Obama she will likely have the same ‘unshakeable’ commitment to Israel’s survival. But she will probably also be more like him - ready to allow the UN to condemn Israel for policies she does not approve of.  

Needless to say, I am not a fan. I will probably not vote for her - if she is the nominee. And that is far from certain. The electors won by Biden during the primaries are no longer going  to vote for  him. They will vote to nominate whomever they choose at the convention. Although Harris seems likely to get the nod for now, you never know.

Just as needless to say, I am not a fan of Trump either and will probably not for him.

What I therefore have to look at is the party - not the candidate. As someone that leans strongly conservative there is not a doubt in my mind which party more represents my views (which includes support for Israel by orders of magnitude compared to Democrats). That is the Republican party. How that will translate into the presidential election is yet to be worked out for me. (I may only vote for down ballot candidates.)

Just some of my thoughts about yesterday’s shocking announcement from the president.