Monday, September 09, 2024

Trump, Harris, and the Polls

A recent poll of American voters found that 65% of them think America is headed in the wrong direction. That is an interesting statistic. One has to wonder, what exactly are the issues that seem to bother America? I doubt that wars taking place thousands of miles away across the ocean in which US troops are not involved are a significant part of their concern. Most of the troubling issues are domestic. Some practical and some moral.

To name a few of the more obvious ones, there is the increasing cost of groceries, the high cost of fuel, the high crime rate, the border crisis, abortion rights, gun control... and the unprecedented divisiveness among Americans. 

Less obvious is the revisionist history progressive academics are urging schools to teach. For example, it isn’t enough to say that the founding fathers were flawed individuals with great ideas upon which this nation was founded and built. Nope. We are to consider them immoral scoundrels who built this country on the backs of black slaves. And that their modern day descendants should therefore be paid reparations.

Even less obvious, but I think equally (if not more) significant is what has happened to traditional family values. What was once common sense has been turned on its head by new definitions of mental health by people with progressive humanistic biases. 

What was once considered abnormal behavior is now considered quite normal -  even to be celebrated. Left wing academics and medical professionals, media personalities, and the entertainment industry are all one with this idea. 

To cite one example of this - someone born a man who believes he is a woman (or vice versa) should be treated as such and considered completely normal. A child that feels that way ought to be given gender affirming hormone therapy until they are adults and can decide to have sex reassignment surgery. Or they just cross dress and be considered the sex that they appear to be on the outside. 

Making matters worse - this has caused many institutions (even schools if I understand correctly) to have singe sex bathrooms. And to allow trans women to compete with or against born women in the same sport. Calling someone a man or a woman these days has just about become politically incorrect! They may after all be non binary!

It is therefore my firm belief  that this is in large part why 65% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

One might ask what bearing this has on the election. I think it explains why a man like Donald Trump is even with Harris in the polls. 

The idea that a reprobate like Trump whose rhetoric is so over the top, that if it were to be taken literally his election would amount to coup d'état dictatorship that would end our democracy as we know it.  That some of the most conservative politicians in recent American history (Liz and Dick Cheney) are voting for Democrat Harris tells us that they are taking Trump at his word. It says a lot about how serious they feel about Trump being a danger to our democracy. Taking him literally - they would be right.

Yet, despite all that, it isn’t only MAGA Republicans that will be voting for him. There will be mainstream Republicans and Independents voting for him as well. And – I dare say – even some Democrats. And - its hard to believe, I know -  but there has even been an increase in black and Hispanic support for him. How is that possible? 

I think that statistic tells the story. That - and the fact that Trump was once president, and our democracy survived. Even though the same fears were expressed about him before he was elected the first time  

On almost all the above mentioned issues, Trump’s polices (not his values – his only value is himself)  are far more favorable to the concerns of that 65% than have been the Biden/Harris’s policies. That is the only way to explain it. 

It also helps to explain why Harris has been distancing herself a bit from Biden. She even started espousing some of Trump’s policy positions recently – abandoning her former progressive stance. She can read the polls and is moving in the direction of those concerns. 

If the election were to be held on issues alone, There is not the slightest doubt who would win the next election. By a landslide. But Trump can’t help himself. He is doing his level best to alienate many of those voters. Many of whom fear that he will implement what he is promising and that will be a disaster for this country despite his policies. That - in my view -  is why he is even with Harris rather than way ahead.

With all the media hype that followed Harris’s ascendancy to becoming the Democratic nominee...and with with all the massive giddy party and media support sheis getting, Harris nevertheless did not enjoy the bump in the polls that  usually comes in the immediate aftermath of a convention. At which she spoke quite eloquently.

That means that we may yet see a second term for Trump come November. After all is said and done, people will vote their issues and their values. 

This explains why the vast majority of devout Evangelical Christians support a man they openly say does not behave in accordance with their values. They will be voting for him because his polices are. As were his policies during his first term. 

The same thing is true for the vast majority of Orthodox Jews. Their moral values are more or less the same as are the values of Evangelicals. That he is not a role model for those values is less important than the polices he implemented in his first term and will more then likely implement in his next term.

Israel is of paramount importance to both Evangelicals and Orthodox Jews. Comparing Trump’s first term to  Harris’s term as Vice President under Biden, her off-handed comments blaming Israel for the civilian casualties in Gaza, as well as people she has chosen so far to advise her on Israel - the candidate most favorable to Israel is Trump - by far.  

The $64 dollar question is, are Trump’s polices more important than a chaotic, vindictive Trump presidency? Which could quickly become a mortal danger to our Democracy as we know it? Or is that fear overblown and unwarranted? If I knew the answer to that, I‘d know who to vote for. And I don't think the debate tomorrow will change anything.