Monday, November 25, 2013

Analysis of a Bad Deal

Iran's Gadol HaDor
Death to America! Death to Israel. That is almost the national anthem of Iran. And it has been since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Although they have toned down the anti America rhetoric lately for obvious reasons, they have not toned down their anti Israel rhetoric. Iran is also labeled a terrorist nation known to export terror all over the world. 

I’m not happy about the deal we made with Iran. I agree with Senator Chuck Schumer. It is a bad deal that gives Iran a big break and the rest of the world nothing. They do not have to dismantle a single nuclear reactor. All they have to do is wait six months, get back on their financial feet, and then full steam ahead.

The Obama administration claims that this is a first step. I don’t think so. The Iranians still insist on their right to continue enrichment and they will not give this up. I fear, as do all the critics, that Iran’s real goal is to become a nuclear power. That means having nuclear weapons and a delivery system that will reach its enemies. And as we all know Israel is their prime target. This is known by the administration. But they still claim this is a step that will lead to more steps with the ultimate goal of eliminating all of their enrichment facilities. Anyone who really believes that probably also believes in the tooth fairy. But that’s the administration’s claim. In my view, this is wishful thinking in the extreme!

No one understands the danger of this deal better than Iran’s neighbors, That includes Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. In a rare circumstance of agreement, these countries are on the same side as Israel on this issue. They all fear a nuclear Iran. And with good reason. Iran is not a rational state. It is a theocracy disguised as  democracy. And the theology it embraces is a murderous one that has little value for human life - even their own- in the cause of promoting their Islamist ideals. 

A nuclear Iran means they will have no respect for the famous deterrent of the cold war between the US and the former USSR (FSU) called MAD – Mutually Assured  Destruction. In a nuclear war nobody wins. Mass populations will be destroyed quickly and most of the rest of us will die from radiation poisoning. Those who survive will be thrown back into the stone age. That assured that the US and the FSU would not launch nuclear attacks against each other.

MAD will not stop Iran. So even the slightest possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear power has to be resisted full force. Even if it means a military attack where people will no doubt die in battle! Iran will not hesitate to use a nuclear weapon as a means toward their Islamist ends. And that probably includes a nuclear attack at any country they think is evil incarnate. Like Israel.

Is there any doubt that Israel is the most hated country by Iran? It's very existence is anathema to their theology.

What the administration fails to understand is that current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s ‘charm offensive’ is meaningless. There is no difference in their beliefs and ultimate goals between him and former President Ahmadinjad. Their only difference is in how they present themselves. Their loyalties are to Allah as expressed by their supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He decides what “Daas Islam” is. Iran is a theocracy. What is Khamenei’s latest expression about the Jewish State? From AP (via NBC World News ): Ayatollah Ali Khamenei... blasted Israel as being "the rabid dog" of the region...

Well we all know what must be done when a dog becomes rabid. We destroy it!

So what difference does it make who is in office in Iran? The goal of Islamism is the same. Khamenei insists on his right to nuclear weapons and that is what th political leadership in Iran will in the end pursue despite its current 6 month pullback. 

What about the fact that it slows them down? Big deal. They get some  financial relief now that was up til now ‘killing’ them. Once they are a somewhat back on their feet they will feign interest in going further but they will in no way give up their nuclear program which they believe is ordained by God. I believe further negotiations will show that. Those negotiations will eventually break down.

But all is not lost. There is a silver lining here The Obama administration will eventually realize that they wasted their time and will not only re-install the sanctions, but will add to them.

That will be torture for them. It is rather well known that torture best works when some relief is given and them reapplied.They will feel the pain then much more this way than if we just continually applied pressure.

What will all this produce in the end? I don't know. But it is clear that Iran must be prevented form obtaining nuclear weapons. And they will under no circumstances give it up. I’m afraid that it will ultimately require  military action. Islamism does not submit to anything but Allah. Allah’s transmitted only through their Gadol HaDor, the Ayatollah Khamenei. Seeing it as God’s will he will do what’s necessary to perpetuate and eventually increase his Islamist empire. I do not see him breaking under additional sanctions. Here is a recent quotepressure from economic sanctions will never force the country into unwelcome concessions

There will be no internal revolution. Iranians are either religious and support their Gadol or fear the consequences of taking action if they don’t. Besides, it's been tried to no avail.  Unfortunately they will have be destroyed in a massive attack by the free world. And our first target should be the Ayatollah. I believe he is a bigger danger to the free world than Bin Laden ever was. Lives will unfortunately be lost as they are in any war. But the alternative is a nuclear Islamist Iran. This is something that the world cannot afford.