An Existential Threat

The Charedi classroom (Times of Israel)

Dan Ben-David is a professor of Economics at Tel Aviv University and founder and president of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research. I have no idea about his politics or how observant he is. I therefore cannot say with any degree of certainty whether there is any anti Charedi bias in his research. That being said his views have a ring of objective truth to them regardless of how ones feels about the Charedi world in Israel. More about that later.

As noted recently, one of my primary concerns is the welfare of the Charedi world in Israel. But that should not be the only concern.

First the good news. There is little doubt in my mind that with respect to their spiritual welfare they are currently thriving. The amount of people studying Torah is unprecedented. I think it is safe to say that there are more people dong that now than at any other time in history. The overall quality of Torah study may not measure up to the past (which is the nature of mass study). But there is no question about the quantity. And in certain individual instances the quality is pretty high too.

The problem is their deteriorating economic situation which in my  view can be attributed to a policy that rejects any kind of preparation in their schools for the future. Charedi students are not taught any secular studies beyond 8^th grade.  Nor are any of the students given enough time to do so on their own – even if they wanted to. Their day in Torah study goes on all day and into the night.In some cases it continues into he wee hours of the morning.  And even if they were given the time, most students wouldn’t be interested in those studies anyway since they are treated by their teachers as a waste of time better spent on Torah study.

This is all old news which I have lamented many times – as recently as this week. But what I have not addressed is how this policy will affect the future of Israel itself. That is where Professor Ben-David comes in who was interviewed in the Times of Israel.  Ben-David considers the rapid growth of the Charedi world combined with their educational paradigm to be  the biggest single threat to Israel’s future… of far greater concern than what usually ends up being seen that way. Here are some pertinent excerpts: 

Israel will not remain viable if it does not vastly improve the quality of education it is giving its children.

“When we look at the future of Israel, half the children today are getting a third-world education. Haredi [ultra-Orthodox] children, who do not learn core subjects like math, science, reading and English, belong to the fastest-growing parts of the population,” he said. “This is unsustainable.”

“…(F)undamentally whether we continue to exist as a country or not depends on our ability to sustain a first-world economy, because otherwise we won’t be able to defend ourselves in the most violent neighborhood on the planet.”

Within two generations, Ben-David explained in a policy brief released this month entitled “Two Wars and Demography: A Long Run View of Israel’s Recent Elections,” nearly half the country’s children will be ultra-Orthodox.

Ben-David cites research showing that children who do not study core subjects in childhood, as most Haredi children do not, are very unlikely to go into professions such as medicine, architecture or engineering, which are essential to a modern economy.

Nor is the situation of Israel’s non-Haredi children significantly better. Israel’s schools are among the worst in the developed world, data show. Achievements in core curriculum subjects such as mathematics, science and reading place Israel in the 24th place out of 25 developed countries, and that is not even counting the Haredim, who do not take international tests...

“The reason we’re able to shoot down missiles today is the fact that we have some people who are extremely educated. They live here. They want to live here.”

But that could change: At some point the burdens of living here could outweigh people’s sentimental attachment to this place. For some, this is already occurring. In 2017, Ben-David pointed out, for every four and a half Israelis with academic degrees who left the country, only one person with an equivalent education returned.

Labor productivity in Israel is among the lowest in the developed world, Ben-David added, and the top 20 percent of income earners pay 92 percent of income tax — a figure that makes Israel an outlier in the OECD. Israel urgently needs to improve services like education, health care and transportation to keep those educated and productive workers from ultimately leaving the country. 

I don’t know how anyone can counter these facts and Ben-David’s analysis. How on earth will Israel survive if 50% of the country will see Torah study as the only thing worth studying? That Charedim can catch up via a variety of programs designed to enable them to get better jobs and become decent wage earners does not mean that they will be able to provide the necessary services that are vital to a modern economy. Where will the doctors come from? The architects? The engineers?  

One might suggest that there will still be enough non Charedim in the other 50% to provide them. But as Ben-David suggests -  the truly bright and highly educated increasingly see a future where they carry the brunt of the economic and defense burden. Which will make (and in some cases already has made) them seek greener pastures in other lands. 

The pioneers of old that built up the country are gone. They were willing to sacrifice a lot for their country, but that it seems is no longer the case.  Today’s Israeli will not stick around. Meanwhile Charedi educational priorities will prevent them from picking up the slack. I don’t see how a country like this can survive if these trends continue.