Trump’s Vision for the Middle East

Trump at a Shul in the UAE (TOI)

It’s difficult if not impossible to predict what a mercurial figure like our President will do next and what he hopes to accomplish by doing it. But that has never stopped me.

I received an email from a frequent commentator (who chooses to remain anonymous) offering his own predictions of what Trump envisions as the future for the Middle East. Oddly enough, I don’t disagree with him that much. Here is a slightly edited version of what he said, followed by my comments after each segment:

(1) Within a few months, Trump will cut a deal with Iran. Iran will keep its nuclear enrichment facilities for what will be touted as civilian and industrial use, under the supposed supervision of the Saudis, other Gulf nations, and perhaps some European powers. Israel will be told it cannot attack these facilities or otherwise engage in warfare against Iran unless the Iranians directly attack Israel first. Iran will agree to ease off its support of terrorism in the region, in exchange for massive trade concessions.

Trump hates war - preferring to make a deal with the devil to avoid it. The devil in this case is Iran. I believe Trump’s uncompromising condition for a deal with Iran is that they must eliminate their entire nuclear program. If they want to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, they will have to import it. This deal will be accompanied by massive oversight from U.S. (and perhaps some European officials).

As Trump has said several times - including as recently as today - Iran has two options: make the deal, or get the ‘other option.’ And it won’t be good for them. They won’t like it. I assume the ‘other option’ will be an increased sanctions regime that will make the previous one look like paradise by comparison.

While Trump did not specifically mention that the deal must include halting arms shipments to proxy nations and militias, he has referenced this in the past. My hope is that it's still part of the plan.

There’s a remote possibility that if the increased sanctions don’t work, there could be a coordinated military attack by the U.S. and Israel to take out those facilities. But like I said - Trump hates war, especially a bloody one that such an attack would surely precipitate.

(2) Israel will be told it cannot proceed with its tentative plan to militarily occupy large parts of Gaza and force Gazans out. While Israel won’t be ordered to end the war immediately, the U.S. and Gulf states will begin shipping large amounts of food and medical supplies to Gaza under some kind of guarantee from Hamas and Qatar that these goods won’t be hijacked. Hamas will remain in Gaza, but its power will be reduced by Qatar and Iran.

I think this is largely correct. Trump sees a lot of people starving in Gaza and doesn’t like it. So, he’s going to send food and medical supplies.

Trump’s vision for Gaza is to make it a “Freedom Zone” that would permanently end the rule of any jihadist groups. He still believes the U.S. should oversee the rebuilding of Gaza, with Palestinians temporarily removed from the process. Once the rebuilding is complete, Palestinians would return and be governed by officials from wealthy Gulf states - at least until they can establish self-rule focused on their own welfare instead of trying to ‘restore all of Palestine.’

Is this feasible in the short term? I seriously doubt it. But that’s what Trump sees at the moment. What about Israel’s announced plans to reoccupy Gaza? As things stand now, I don’t see another option. But if a miracle happens and Trump gets his way, I’m absolutely convinced Israel will go along - regardless of who the prime minister is at the time.

(3) Trump will begin working with the Saudis and Qataris to create his envisioned “land of freedom” in Gaza. Housing and roads will be (slowly) rebuilt, infrastructure replaced, etc., with plans down the road to build hotels, spas, and resorts along the coast. Military units from the Gulf states will police the area and keep Hamas in check. Gazans will live there. West Bank Arabs will be invited to move there. Israelis will be kept out.

I basically agree with that.

(4) The Gaza “land of freedom” will not, at first, be operated by Gazans or Hamas. In time, however, it will be turned over to a hand-picked Gazan regime supported by the Saudis, Qataris, and other Gulf states. Gaza will thereby become a de facto Palestinian state.

I agree with that too. But a de facto Palestinian state? Maybe - if and only if Palestinians abandon the dream of reclaiming all of historic Palestine. That can only happen if they eliminate the anti-Jewish rhetoric and materials in their education system. I don’t see that happening for decades - if it happens at all.

(5) The Saudis and other Gulf states will become the most powerful in the region, with full support from the U.S. The Abraham Accords might finally flourish, but Israel’s influence will decline.

If money is power, then the Saudis and Gulf states are already the most powerful players in the region. As their financial investments in the US increase, so too does their strategic value

Will the Abraham Accords flourish? The dream of normalized relations with their neighbors has been part of Israel’s vision since its founding over 77 years ago. If Trump can make that happen, it will be a dream come true.

It seems even Syria is ready to play ball. Who would have thought that just one year ago? With sanctions removed and the president encouraging the new Syrian leadership to move in that direction (which he has hinted at doing), that would be a heck of an achievement in advancing that dream

I do not agree, however, that Israel’s influence will decline. Israel remains a major strategic asset to the United States. I don’t see that changing. It’s also not lost on the president that Israel has contributed mightily to global advancements in science, medicine, and technology. On that last point, he even suggested the U.S. copy Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system.

Trump has repeatedly praised Israel’s achievements both before and during his presidency. There’s every reason for the US to maintain strong ties with the Jewish state.

All in all, I’d say Trump still has Israel’s back. He’s never retreated from a position of full support. He’s just going about it in a very unconventional way. To ardent supporters of Israel who have been disappointed by recent comments – or the ‘snubbing’ of Israel during his just completed economic mission to the Middle East – my advice to them is as follows:

Chill. Just chill.  Give the guy a chance to do it his way. You never know. In the end, you might just like it.