The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working

Iranian leader killed by Israel today

There is little doubt that opinions about the war in Iran are shaped less by facts than by attitudes toward the leaders prosecuting it. While not universally true, it is hard to ignore the pattern: most opposition comes from liberal Democrats who are no fans of the president or the prime minister, while most support comes from conservative Republicans (aside from an isolationist faction whose loyalty appears to be waning.) There are of course other factors influencing public opinion. Like the war’s impact on the cost of living. Nonetheless, I think my point stands

To be sure, arguments exist on both sides. But the central question is straightforward: when all is said and done, is this war a net positive or a net negative? And how far does either outcome extend?

I have argued in favor of confronting Iran before, and I do not dismiss the concerns of those who disagree. But an honest look at the facts on the ground prior to U.S. and Israeli action compared to the facts on the ground now  is in my view,  a clear and significant net benefit.

Which brings me to a recent op-ed in the English-language edition of Al Jazeera, the Qatari-funded outlet widely cited by mainstream media during Israel’s war with Hamas. Coverage that was, unsurprisingly, far from sympathetic to Israel. The piece, by Muhanad Seloom, carried the following headline:

The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working. Here is why

With a subheading that read:

Every aspect of Iran’s ability to project regional power is being successfully degraded.

In it, Seloom does a masterful job explaining why the war was necessary and why he believes it is succeeding. His analysis is brutally honest and does not mince words. He acknowledges the legitimate concerns of those who oppose the war, even as he lays out the case for why it was undertaken—and why, in his view, it is being won.

Rather than paraphrase, I will excerpt extensively from Seloom’s analysis, which, to my mind, is difficult to refute. Especially given his willingness to engage seriously with the strongest arguments on the other side.

He begins by acknowledging the following:

Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the dominant narrative has settled into a comfortable groove: The United States and Israel stumbled into a war without a plan. Iran is retaliating across the region. Oil prices are surging, and the world is facing another Middle Eastern quagmire. US senators have called it a blunder. Cable news has tallied the crises. Commentators have warned of a long war.

The chorus is loud and, in some respects, understandable. War is ugly, and this one has imposed real costs on millions of people across the Middle East, including the city I live in.

But this narrative is wrong...

To continue reading this post - and comment on it - click on this link: substack. You must subscribe to receive new posts. It's easy and it's free.