Breaking the Nuclear Deal with Iran

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei (WSJ)

I can understand why those who supported the nuclear deal with Iran did so. Their argument seemed quite solid. A terrorist regime like Iran equipped with nuclear weapons was an unprecedented threat to the world. They were on the precipice of pulling that off. Along with a ballistic missile system capable of delivering those weapons anywhere in the world. Including  ‘The Great Satan’ – America.  Of which masses of their devout  screamed ‘Death to America’. Which is practically their national credo.  

The the nations of the world had sanctioned Iran - boycotting doing any business with them. That really hurt them financially and brought them to the negotiating table.  Those negotiations led by the US resulted in a deal that removed those crippling sanctions in exchange for delaying further development and production of nuclear weapons for a period of at least 10 years. Which would have ongoing verification by international inspectors.

Much of the civilized world seemed to breath a collective sigh of relief. That deal has allowed international business dealings with Iran which has been beneficial for both Iran and the nations of the world that desired to do business with them.

Critics of the plan dismissed the deal since it did not stop Iran from getting the bomb. It only delayed it for 10 years (or perhaps a bit more  depending on who you believe).

It did nothing to stop them form developing a ballistic missile system capable of delivering nuclear destruction anywhere in the world. 

It did not stop Iran from being the worlds biggest state sponsor of terror - exporting it all over the world. They continue doing that with impunity. They send money and weaponry to surrogates in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and in Gaza (Hamas). They send troops to Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. 

They have not given up their sworn goal to destroy Israel and give it back to Palestinians like Hamas. All in their ultimate goal of spreading their version of Islam to the world .

In short this deal was not worth the paper it was written on. 

Supporters pretty much admitted that the deal was flawed in all the above ways but they claimed this was the best deal they could get. In the meantime they hoped that by releasing Iran from the severe sanctions regime they would become more integrated into the civilized world. And as such they would no longer seek nuclear weapons and instead appreciate the peace and prosperity that resulted from that deal and would no longer be a danger to the world.

They claimed that opponents of the deal could not have come up with anything better that Iran would have accepted. This was the consensus of all those nations of the world that participated and therefore – along with the US - signed that deal with Iran.

Which brings me to President Trump. He was was absolutely correct in canceling that deal. That the President's political opponents are upset by this should come as no surprise. But the nations that signed onto it are equally upset. if not more so!

The claim is that Iran will immediately resume development of nuclear weapons. But I suspect that it is not entirely for that reason those nations are so upset. I believe they are motivated more by financial considerations. Restoring those sanctions will hurt their economies. They want to trade with Iran.They are already doing so. Stopping it will hurt them big time.  Nuclear fears are at best secondary for them.

Those nations have pledged to continue to honor their commitment to the deal and continue trading with Iran. The US on the other hand has just issued a snap back of sanctions that were in place before that deal was singed. And they have threatened to boycott doing business with any nation that does business with Iran.  Follow the money. That has often been a pretty good barometer of determining motive. 

Let us examine what is happening now in Iran and see whether breaking the deal is a good idea or a bad one.

The fact of the matter is that the Iranian Revolution that turned Iran into an Islamist terrorist state nearly 40 years ago - was  not universally supported by all Iranians Only the Islamist followers of their exiled cleric, Ayatollah Khomeini. There were plenty of Iranians that were happy with the status quo under the Shah who tried to bring his country into the twentieth century - modernizing it by following the western cultural model of the United States.

But the Islamists were highly motivated and took over. The rest is history. Islamist Iranians might be happy. But the rest of the Iran is not. They are ruled with an iron clerical fist. Protests are pretty quickly put down. Sometimes brutally.  That is what happened there every time its been tried.

Meanwhile economic conditions in Iran have not really improved that much after the sanctions were lifted. Protests have resumed and are ongoing. Only now another cry is also being heard: ‘Death to the dictator’ (their current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei). Not only ‘Death to America’. Protests are breaking out all over the country.

Ever since the President announced that the US was breaking the deal with Iran, things have gotten worse – even before a single sanction has been snapped back into place: Their economy is in shambles. Their money is practically worthless. Business is down. People can't afford to buy anything there. And a lot of Iranians are blaming it on their government and its supreme leader. They accuse them of being inept and corrupt. I’ve even heard some older Iranians saying they wish they could return to the days of the Shah. Once the US sanctions fully set in - things will only get worse.

Iran’s obsession with producing a nuclear weapon is not what is on their minds now. They are far more worried that they will lose power and that their country will collapse .  

I have heard that it is the nature of torture that  people can be trained to withstand enormous degrees of it.  What will break them is when they get relief from it and then it is reapplied. That is what is happening here. The people of Iran know who is really to blame. And it isn’t only the US.  It is their regime and the clerics who run it. 

Under this kind of renewed and increased pressure - the current regime in Iran might just be willing to negotiate a new deal with the US. Just to stay alive. One that will get them out of the mess of an economy spiraling downward into oblivion - and instead into a more stable one under a new deal. The President has said he will meet with any Iranian leader at any time to discuss a new and better deal. No preconditions.

I believe this ‘carrot and stick’ approach will work. It will bring Iran to its knees - long before it will bring a nuclear bomb to the world. Sure. They may restart their nuclear program. But that would only make matters worse since Europe would have to snap back their own sanctions back into place (whether they like it or not). What good is having nuclear weapons if you can’t feed your people?

Iran’s leaders may be religious fanatics. But they are not stupid. Nor are they the martyrs they implore their people to be. They want to stay in power. And the US will be ready to set the terms for their survival. One that will make them give up their evil ways by verifiable means.

I know this is all speculation on my part. But it is my view and I believe that it is the most likely outcome.