 |
| Pete Buttigieg and his husband last night in South Bend (WSJ) |
That was before last Shabbos when South Carolina
had their primary. Biden won big –capturing almost 50 percent of the vote. More
than double of his closest rival Sanders. Buttigieg ended up behind Tom Steyer in
fourth place with single digits.
It appears that Bloomberg’s 600 million dollar quest for the
nomination has not panned out the way he expected it would. He entered the race as an alternative to Biden
in the belief that Biden could not win. Now it is Bloomberg who has that distinction,
it appears. It is now Bloomberg that has been all but written off.
Elizabeth Warren continues her slide down the trail of improbability
as does Amy Klobuchar.
Steyer has dropped out of the race. That should not surprise
anyone.
What is somewhat surprising is
that Buttigieg has suddenly dropped out as well. While it’s
true that he did not do well in South Carolina, he won big in the first 2
contests. A poor showing in Nevada and South Carolina does not mean he wouldn’t
do well on Super Tuesday. (Which is tomorrow.)
But I guess he saw the handwriting on the wall. Sanders and
Biden are the ones with momentum now. He probably felt that staying in the race
would take away votes from Biden the more moderate candidate, with no clear winner by the time they have their convention in
Milwaukee. Which would mean a contested convention where backroom deals would replace
the will of the Democratic voter. So he did the honorable thing and dropped out.
While he did not endorse Biden, it’s pretty clear that he does not support
Sanders or his Socialist policies. Nor does he think a Socialist can win the election against
Trump in November.
Last night he gave an eloquent speech to supporters in his
home town South Bend, Indiana. He showed
his true colors as a patriot willing to sacrifice his own needs for the sake of
the country. I don’t think that can be disputed no matter how you feel about
him or his policies. I don’t agree with most of them. But I have to give him
credit for his integrity. Which is pretty rare for a politician.
He also
happened to do himself a lot of good for any future attempt at high office. Including another run for President. Which is very possible considering his young age of 38. (Although as I’ve said in the past, I’m not
sure the country is ready for a gay President now or at any time in the near
future. Even though gay people are pretty much equally accepted in this country both individually
and as a group.)
At this point – it seems that it is only a matter of time
before Warren and Klobuchar drop out. Although as a moderate, Klobuchar would make a
sensible choice for Vice President (if Biden wins the nomination) that
could deliver the Midwest.
That is how things look from here. That said, I’m not yet
convinced that Sanders won’t somehow pull it off. Which if he does - he will
probably lose big time to Trump. At this point it seems far more likely that
Biden is going to be the nominee.
The question then becomes, can he win against Trump? I’m not
so sure. Watching him on the campaign trail… there seems to be something off
about him. He stammers a lot during debates and interviews. He seems to correct
himself a lot mid sentence. He does not exude the kind of confidence one would
expect in a President.
His polices may be moderate. But that is only in comparison to Sanders.
Biden is about as liberal as a Democrat can get. That he constantly promotes himself
as an extension of former President Obama should tell you all you need to know
about what a Biden Presidency would look like.
What concerns me is what his policy with respect to Israel
will be like. He does support Israel and will likely continue the kind of financial
support, military cooperation and and intelligence sharing that was in place during
Obama’s administration.
But he has made no secret of his disdain of Netanyahu
or his right wing policies. As Vice President he had publicly scolded him on more
than one occasion. We will be going back to a policy that sees ‘settlements as
obstacles to peace’. If Biden’s polices actually do become an extension of Obama’s,
I do not see anything positive coming out of that for Israel.
Frankly, I do not understand why anyone would want to return to the
polices of the past that did nothing except prolong the status quo for Israel and
Palestinians for decades. It had done nothing for the cause of peace. And yet that is what every liberal thinks
would be a good idea.
This is not to say that Trump’s peace plan will ever get any
traction. But Israel and the Palestinians are no worse off now than they were
under Obama’s policies. Meanwhile the relationship between the US and Israel
has never been closer. Why change that if there will be no positive benefit
coming out of it by going back to the failed policies of the past?!
(This does not mean I think Netanyahu’s pro settler polices
are a good idea. I don’t. But even that
has no real bearing on the welfare of most Israelis or Palestinians – other than inciting their
radical element towards more violence against Israelis. Which in my
view is a good reason not to pursue those policies. But I digress.)
All this is of course speculation. There is still no way of
knowing who will be the Democratic nominee - much less who will win the Presidency
come November. But it’s always fun to speculate. And this is - once again - my 2 cents.
