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| Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich (Ynet) |
There are however some significamt differences between the two. Netanyahu has much broader support among the Israeli right than does Trump among the American right. Which is why Netanyahu was able to be the longest serving leader in Israel’s history while Trump was a ‘One and done’ leader (hopefully). But still the comparison between the two is apt. In in both cases hate by the left is visceral. While the right in each country has a love affair with them.
But this is not about Trump. It’s about Netanyahu and what might happen in the upcoming Israeli elections in November.
Winners of the last several elections were unable to form stable governments. Which requires a majority of its Knesset members to be in the ruling coalition. Unstable coalitions were formed with incompatible political parties that soon fell apart.
Although like the US, the Israel’s electorate is divided between the right and the left there is a difference. Israel’s right is the more dominant polical philosophy. Which also helps to explain Netanyahu’s popularity and dominance over the his long term in office. However for a variety of reasons - not the least of which is Netanyahu’s alienation of former allies and legal troubles - he has been unable to put together a stable ruling coalition in the last several governments
It appears that Netanyahu’s best chance to return to power is right now. His legal troubles do not seem to phase the huge plurality of people that voted for his party, Likud. Likud is still the largest single political party in Israel by far. It seems like those voters doesn’t care much about his abovementioned issues.
There has to be a reason for that. Despite his legal problems; he manages to win a lot of votes. True, the country is divided. But as noted the electorate seems to consist of majority right wing voters. Which appears to be growing and drifting even further to the right.
This is where Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party comes in. Ben-Gvir is the ideological heir to the late Rabbi Meir Kahane. Whose party Kach was banned because it was deemed racist against Arabs.
Ben-Gvir has managed to avoid being banned but is no less ideological than his mentor, Rabbi Kahane. I am not a fan, to say the least. But I understand his growing appeal. A lot of Jews have been killed by Palestinian terrorists lately. Polls have shown that Otzma Yehudit may win as many as 8 seats in the next Knesset.
By contrast the right wing National Religious Party of Bezalal Smotrich may not win enough votes to pass the minimum 3.5 seat threshold to be seated in the next Knesset. Ben-Gvir has agreed to run with Smotrich as one unit. That means that this right wing block may have as many as 12 seats in the next Knesset (if the polls are anywhere near accurate).
The only problem is the Charedi parties of UTJ. They are so divided that they may run as separate political parties. Which may reduce the number of seats the Charedi parties have if one of them does not reach the threshold. Or eliminate them altogether if neither of them do. Netanyahu needs them to run as a unit. My guess is that they will come to their senses rather than risk losing all of their political clout. If they do unite, Netanyahu might be able to form a stable right wing coalition.
All of this is speculation of course. The polls have been wrong before. But one thing is sure. Israel needs a stable government. It cannot run forever on shaky coalitions that seem to collapse almost before they begin to govern.
The question is whether a coalition with a heavy ‘Kahane’ influence will endanger Israel’s standing with its most important ally, the United States. Will there be a major increase in settlement activity? Will right wing Religious Zionist extremists be more tolerated – and perhaps even supported in their quest to settle all the land of Israel including the West Bank? Will there be a concerted effort to remove Palestinians for their homes and replaced by right wing settlers? Will violence in that cause be more tolerated?
I can’t answer any of those questions. But, in my view if any of that happens it would be a tragic mistake. The entire world - including the US. - will unite in condemnation of Israel more vehemently than ever. Settling all the land of Israel needs to wait until the messianic era when everyone will be on board with it.
Will any of this happen? My hope is that it won’t. If he manages to become the prime minister again, Netanyahu - who was an effective leader in the past will be able to be one again - despite the fact that the left increasingly can’t stand him. He ran his country for a total 15 years. I believe he knows how far to the right he can push the envelope without crossing America’s red lines. And that he will be able to convince the extremist right wing coalition partners to feel the same way and not bolt.
I guess we will have to wait until November to find out.
