Unlike the cynics and Netanyahu bashers - I believe Netanyahu’s primary reason for going to war with Hezbollah was what he said it was: To allow the approximately 80 thousand Jews who evacuated Northern Israel a year ago to return to their homes.
But what about the potential for much greater number of Israeli casualties? Surely that would discourage any sane leader from doing something as foolish and dangerous as fighting Hamas and Hezbollah at the same time. That’s what a lot of ‘expert’ opinion in the US had been saying prior to Israel’s decision to invade Lebanon. Only a fool with an outsize ego like Netanyahu would ever consider doing it.
That was pretty much the conventional wisdom. But Netanyahu was not going to be swayed by the opinion of so-called experts. He had his own experts to rely upon. Experts not only in strategy and tactics. But experts in military intelligence. Military intelligence that the world seems to have lost confidence in since October 7th. For good reason. That was an intelligence failure of epic proportion. But loss of confidence in Israel’s intelligence apparatus was premature. Israel has not lost the ability to perform the kind of ‘magic’ they performed in the 6 Day War of 1967.
A few pagers and walkie-talkies later - not only did they manage to fight a two-front war, they managed to defeat Hezbollah in very short order. Assassinating their long time leader Hassan Nasrallah and killing off the rest of their leadership. The IDF also managed to destroy large amounts of the weapons arsenal and push Hezbollah back behind the Litani River – which to the best of my knowledge is out of range of the rockets they have been firing daily since the Hamas attack of October 7th.
While there are of course no guarantees, the cease fire deal is structured in Israel’s favor. As I understand it, over the next 60 days, Israel will conduct a phased withdrawal from Lebanon. Hezbollah will withdraw its forces behind the Litani River.
Although violating past cease fires has been the modus operandi of Hezbollah - they will not be able to get away that anymore. The era of UN peacekeepers ignoring or outright helping Hezbollah are over since the US will now be monitoring violations. No more relying solely on the UN. I’m not so happy that France will be joining the US in monitoring cease fire violations. I trust them about as much as I trust the UN. But I am encouraged by the US presence.
With the blessing of the United States, Israel reserves the right to re-enter Lebanon should Hezbollah violate the cease fire. And finally all those who have fled their homes will be able to return to them.
It’s probably true that Hezbollah will try to rebuild. And that Iran will help them do it. But they will no longer be able to violate the terms of the cease fire without being noticed by the US. And will pay a heavy price for it if they do.
I am cautiously optimistic about this cease fire. Israel could really use a break from the war and all the undeserved criticism it is getting. More importantly there won’t be anymore IDF causalities in Lebanon after Israel withdraws.
And the new US administration whose cabinet members are more sympathetic to Israel than the ones they are replacing certainly helps
My only reservation (and it’s a big one) is the hostages
being held by Hamas. Their fate is undetermined. Hamas has
not raised the white flag because they still have that trump card. Although they
too have been decimated, they are going to fight for ‘Palestine’ and for the release
of their murderers in Israeli prisons until
they get them. I’m therefore not sure any deal they want to make for hostages
would be acceptable if it meant releasing so many of those savages back into Hamas
hands.
What’s to become of the remaining hostages? That question has been tearing me apart since the day they were so brutally kidnapped. I have no good answers. But maybe the defeat of Hezbollah who will no longer send rockets into Israel in support of Hamas may bring some pressure on them Sad to say, I’m not optimistic.
