Is a New Iranian Revolution Possible?

Student protests in Iran

I remember when Israel had an embassy in Iran. That was back in the good old days of the early 70s when that Shah was in charge. Iran was a Muslim country that had a secular style government and was friendly to the Jewish state. Iran had a thriving Jewish population at the time.

At the time Iran  was modernizing with a ‘bullet’. I recall images of a culture quickly becoming westernized. The Shah tried to bring a once primitive country into the 20^th century.  By his own admission a bit too quickly – which he blamed for the Islamic revolution.

I don’t think that was entirely to blame. But he was probably right to a certain extent. There were a lot of Islamic fundamentalists living in Iran at the time that didn’t like the modernization – considering it incompatible with Islam. It was however the heavy handed way he dealt with his dissidents that got the Shah into trouble. He was accused of torturing them.

It was criticism like that that caused then President Jimmy Carter to urge the Shah to loosen the reins and allow dissent to take place. That eventually led to The Shah’s demise; his government overthrown; and replaced by a democratic one. 

That lasted about a minute. It too was quickly overthrown in cathartic revolution by fervent Shia Muslims whose leader was an exiled (by the Shah) cleric named Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Recordings of his religious lectures had been smuggled into Iran - much of which was bought into by  Iran’s devout youth. Who somehow did not adapt well to the modernity the Shah so hurried brought into his country.

Religious fervor is a great motivator. Perhaps the greatest motivator of all. It makes martyrs out of people when they believe God is on their side. We know that all to well by the huge number of terrorist attacks over the last few decades. They were being done by fundamentalist religious Muslims believing that blowing themselves up in service to their religion would give them an immediate ticket to Heaven. 

That kind of religious fervor is almost impossible to fight. So that nearly 40 years ago religious fundamentalist Shia Muslims replaced the secularist Shah. There was no stopping them. They rolled over the momentary democratic rule with a steamroller. Paving the way for their revered icon, Ayatollah Khomeini to make his triumphant return from exile and take charge.  Iran quickly became a country governed by Islamic (Sharia) law.

What about that part of the population that liked living in freedom and not governed by the strict letter of Sharia Law. They were marginalized. Any protest they might have registered was quickly dealt with by the ruling government that did not make a move without the religious guidance of their revered Ayatollah. It is because of their religious fervor, that Israel was now seen as the devil to be destroyed. Jewish dominion over Israel was seen by them as complete contradiction to Islamic theology. Needless to say there is no Israeli embassy there any more. 

Fast forward to today and Iranian citizens seem to be at peace with how they live. A life filled with the religious values of Islam. In the 40 years since the revolution, Iranians 40 years of age and under know no other way. They believe that Iran was always like that. Or they believe that the previous government under the Shah was corruption of Islamic values and a blot on their history.  

And yet there is still a segment that can remember the freedom from religious coercion they once had. They yearn for it.  it is also very likely that a younger element exists now that may is not in love with the way Islam is practiced in their country. And they would love to see the reins of strict fundamentalist Islamic law loosened. 

Social media has a way of permeating the hearts and minds of young people in 2018 much the same way religious fervor of the 70s  permeated young hearts and minds back then. Which was a time social media hadn’t been invented yet. Without resources like that turning to religion to find meaning in their lives was natural. 

Which brings me to somewhat  encouraging news of late - out of Iran. But not encouraging enough. At least not yet if it ever will be. There seems to be a new revolution taking place there. Media reports are saying it is about the rising costs of living and a stagnant economy. Perhaps those were precipitating factors. But I think it is something else. There appears that a lot of Iranians are so fed up with life as it exists there now - that they are staging massive protests against it. CNN reports there have been 12 deaths attributed to those protests thus far. 

I don’t know what percentage of the country feels this way. But a lot of people are willing to risk the consequences of protesting an iron-fisted religious regime whose leaders believe they are being guided by God. Those leaders will not tolerate dissent no matter what the rest of the world thinks about it. They don’t care. They are fighting for God.

I wish it were different. I would love to see an Israeli embassy in Iran again. But I’m not going to hold my breath. I wish this uprising could overthrow the current Islamic regime and replace it with a modern democracy. Much the  same way the reverse happened 40 years ago. But it is not going to happen.

The religious government in Iran will do whatever it takes to crush a rebellion they believe is a rebellion against God. A similar revolution happened back in 2009. Many people hoped that it would happen then, too. It didn’t. It was crushed then and even though this seems like a bigger one it will very likely be crushed now, too. I wish it weren’t so. But I don’t see how it can succeed against those who consider themselves warriors for God - willing to martyr themselves if necessary.