Schadenfreude

Among those too eager to declare the US attack at Fordow a failure

I find it both amusing and disappointing that the president’s critics are expressing so much joy over reports suggesting that the bombing of Fordow was not as successful as initially believed. And certainly not as successful as the president indicated in its immediate aftermath.

But this reaction should surprise no one. It’s a common phenomenon known as schadenfreude - the pleasure derived from another person's misfortune.

And let’s be honest: there's a great deal of schadenfreude among Trump’s critics. Anytime there’s even a possibility that he might be wrong about something, they leap to that conclusion with a sort of ‘I told you so’ attitude. Even when it means that his being right would’ve been far better for both the United States and Israel.

In some cases, they may publicly express regret that the mission wasn’t more successful. But make no mistake: the fact that it wasn’t is far more satisfying to them than if it had been. That seems to be the case with the recent leak from a source at the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm.  As noted in a CNN story:

Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.

According to the leaked assessment, despite the full scale of Israel’s bombing campaign in Iran and the U.S. strike on Fordow - Iran’s nuclear program may have only been set back by a few months.

This has been vigorously denied by the president, the vice president, and the Secretaries of State and Defense. They are standing firm in their claim that the damage was so severe it has set Iran’s nuclear program back years.

Whether that claim holds up under more thorough analysis remains to be seen. But what should be obvious is that the leak itself was politically motivated by individuals within the defense department with an agenda to discredit the president. There is no other plausible explanation for why these 4 people shared it with the media before all the facts are in and fully analyzed.

In any case, the most reliable intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program comes from Israel. Their agents have deeply infiltrated Iran and are far more likely to provide an accurate assessment than anonymous Pentagon leakers—or media pundits eager to declare the mission a failure. So far, Israel has not issued a public evaluation. Until they do, any conclusion is premature.

Now, let’s consider for a moment that the leaked Defense Department analysis is more or less accurate, and that Iran could, in theory, resume uranium enrichment within a few months. Does that automatically mean they’ll be in the same position to build a nuclear weapon as before?

That seems highly unlikely.

Israel inflicted tremendous damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure even before the Fordow strike. Much of their bomb-making potential was destroyed. So even if Iran manages to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, they may no longer have the capacity to build a bomb anytime soon. The facilities required for that stage were likely taken out in the early days of the campaign.

Then there’s the fact that many of their top nuclear scientists - their ‘cream of the crop’ have been eliminated. Are there even enough qualified experts left in Iran to guide the program forward?

There’s also the broader strategic context. Iran just suffered a humiliating military defeat at the hands of the very nation it has sworn to wipe off the map - Israel, with U.S. backing. Are they truly prepared to resume their nuclear program and risk another devastating blow?

And that risk isn’t hypothetical. If Israel determines that Iran has restarted its nuclear efforts - and continues to pose an existential threat - they will not sit idly by. Nor will the United States, especially after committing so many resources to stopping them now.

Iran would have to bury its program so deeply - figuratively and literally - that even Israel’s network of infiltrators couldn’t detect it. That seems unlikely.

One thing is certain: Trump, despite his insatiable desire to declare victory and be seen as a peacemaker, will not allow Iran to rebuild its nuclear program unchecked. Too much has already been invested. He’s not going to settle for an Obama-style deal. Not after bombing Fordow.

So is Iran willing to take that risk, even if Fordow can somehow be salvaged in a few months? We’ll see. But before jumping to conclusions driven by political motives - we need to wait for Israel’s defense establishment to weigh in.

Because no matter how good schadenfreude feels, it’s no substitute for facts.